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July 2008 Archives

July 30, 2008

7/30 - a bit of a mess

Sweating a bit today.

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July 28, 2008

7/27 - Preparing for the week

I am resting this weekend, practicing some golf with my son. Hiking with the family. All the while thinking wondering about what is next for us this week. The past month has been outstanding. I still have a while to go get to my goals for the month. I want to have a 50% return on the month. So far I have had a high watermark of 40.8% on the month, and 145% on the year.

On Thursday and Friday I added a few positions.

POT - 210/200/190c 2/3/1 BrokenWing Butterfly (BWB) for a credit of 3.20. This is bearish position I bought with the underlying @ 203. The price briefly moved up to 205+ and took out some bearish stops. I am looking at resistance levels of 205, 210, 217, and 227. I believe we are going down, as a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Also, with extraordinarily good earnings the stock still moved lower (Bearish).

MFE - Sold 1 of the remaining 2 units of the Aug/Sept 35p for .63.

I went into the weekend without much exposure and 83% cash.

Position Greeks are:
Delta (SPX weighted) - 13
Gamma -.66
Theta +155
Vega +582

Here is my "until" the election forecast:
You mentioned forecasts, here is mine: I think we get a summer rally off a double bottom SPY 118.92 or so. Then a call for a successful retest by the bulls around the 118.92 level. (It is really the only chance the Republicans have.) We may see a rally to around 1360 or so. But the Market will be smarter.

Eventual lows down to the 1096 level. Then Obama becomes president somewhere after that (I am not an Obama supporter, but much does need to change). That resolution of uncertainty should be a catalyst for an upward move. I am not sure what his tax and foreign policy stance will do to our American Empire. However, there will be many people in power (real power) who will not like it.

It is many times interesting to me how often coincide with previous levels of support. i.e. 126 level of previous support (38.2%), 119 (50%), and 1100 (61.8% and Wave 4 low). Lastly, many W5s retrace back to W4 lows 1096ish.

SPY Weekly
SPY%207.27.gif

This week I am looking for a break below SPY 124.90 as a short indication, and above 126 as a short term up. I will be playing the IWM 68p as a slight short, and probably some type of short vertical in the SPY to take a directional short.
There is also bound to be many Micro calendars which will present opportunity shortly.

July 24, 2008

July 24th - have we topped?

I took a bit of a gamble this week, but it was based on my weekend analysis. So far, so good.

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July 20, 2008

July 20 - getting ready for the week

Great previous week, now I look toward a very busy next week.

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July 18, 2008

July 18th - Expiration Friday and a laugh

Trade has been good. Exceptionally good in fact. Up about 32% on the month.

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July 15, 2008

July 15 - As we move past VIX 30

There was panic in the streets today. I believe there is some redemption pressure in the market today

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July 14, 2008

July 14 - Gap open, breakdown

Action which should scare the bulls.

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July 11, 2008

July 11 - MAJOR pain, possible capitulation

A blood bath for the longs. No bottom in sight, however I am looking for a bounce down a bit farther. VIX nearing 30.

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July 9, 2008

July 9th - Rough, rough day in the markets

There are some fund managers and private investors who are going to panic soon.

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July 7, 2008

July 7/8 - Massive swings, and market breakdowns

Recapping a crazy monday market, and live blogging a wilder tuesday.

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July 3, 2008

Be grateful for Independence Day, and trading on the 3rd

It is called Independence Day, if you live in the USA.

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July 2, 2008

July 2nd - I believe we have found a bottom, for the week. By the end of the day, I was wrong

No follow through today. I expected a retracement. Will there be an opportunity for a bounce? That is how I am playing it.

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July 1, 2008

July 1st - early fireworks

I was smoked by the market, but I ended up slightly.

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