<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
   <title>Jonathan Lawson</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/" />
   <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/atom.xml" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5</id>
   <updated>2008-05-15T20:55:44Z</updated>
   <subtitle>Breckenridge Ski Instructor / PSIA Level 3 and PSIA-RM Accredited Trainer

Private and Group Lessons for 16 years</subtitle>
   <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type 3.33</generator>

<entry>
   <title>May 15 - Gripping by its nails, and clawing back.</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_15_gripping_by_its_nails.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.503</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-15T15:03:53Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-15T20:55:44Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Starting off the morning on Tilt, but I will get it back.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[The market doesn't want to let go.  It is chopping around even.

I am a bit "'on tilt" this morning.  I have been stalking an exit on MFE.  I was  forecasting a move down to the trend line this morning.  And it happened just as I forcasted, to the penny.  I would have been a beautiful exit with one day to go.  What happened?
About 4 minutes before the open I was "asked" to Iron my daughter's dress for school pictures.  I did it relatively quickly, I came back to the computer @ 7:36.  The move had already happened, and the stock had reversed, and broke above yesterday's consolidation.  I missed out on a very sizeable gain, and ended getting out for a price a little worse than I could have yesterday.  Grrrrr.

OK, now that I got that out, MFE is reversing further and moving up.  So my decision to exit my calendar for .95 was well founded.  XLE continues to ramp.  Setting all time highs.  Wow, that is strong like bull.  A variety of other trades seem to be all over the map.  I am feeling very good to have my UST hedged, as it is moving down again.  I am effectively short the IWM and SPY.  Dow would be nice.  I have my short game plan in case of a break below yesterday's lows.  But I do see support @ 1383.  
***********
I am looking for some trades with an edge.  I don't see any specific trades.  But I am quite bearish after yesterday.  If the S&P breaks below yesterday's Gravestone doji.  I am also looking for the Resistance level of 1419 to be very significant.

I think Rev Shark is saying it correctly here:
 	
<blockquote>The market has had a tendency lately to shake off weakness in the morning and gain strength throughout the day. So, I'm not too quick to react to this opening action. It already looks like dip buyers are starting to show up, and I have no interest in trying to short the indices until they are less confident.

It has been interesting how the market recently rallied supposedly because oil took a dip, but seems unperturbed when it is strong like it is this morning. That is a pretty good example of the optimistic mindset that has been dominating the market lately. All news is good news right now. At some point, that illogic will correct, but it doesn't pay to fight it until the price action starts to shift. </blockquote>

This is an interesting explanation for the push in Oil today.
<blockquote>Trading at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has been halted due to a power failure. The all electronic exchange feature product are energy futures such as oil and gas. But it also trades some agriculture products such as cotton and wheat.

Be curious if these causes an increase in volatility as traders will be forced onto the Nymex, whose crude contracts are not the exact same and therefore not fungible with the ICE contracts.

Today is also an expiration for options on May futures and open interest is near record levels. There has been big increase in the 130 strike in recent days. That still seems to far out-of-the money to get there today but someone might try to gun it heading into the close. </blockquote>
It may be an interesting move to short into.  I am actually looking for a BWB style trade into XLE.  I must be crazy, but I am looking.

Trades:

MFE - Exited remainder of May/June 35p calendar for .95.  Nice 100%+ profit.

FCMN - I am looking for some short exposure, and I have entered a first order to go short this issue.  My target to the downside is 31.  I am buying a put spread between 41.10 and 42.

At S&P 1422, I am delta negative 289.  Churning market conditions.  I am still sitting mostly in cash, but damn.  Drop already.
Theta positive 77

BTW, it is snowing in Breckenridge.

]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 14th - up day is good! Found a brother</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_14th_up_day_is_good_found.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.501</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-14T15:18:25Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-15T05:15:49Z</updated>
   
   <summary>The market is strong like bull, we will see at 1420</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[Trade is going well on a strong up day!  Except for BTE.  And one of the best things is that I just saw a friend and Fraternity brother (TKE), Joe Vietri on CNBC.  It looks like Joe is doing well for himself as VP of Product Development for Charles Schwab.  He is a great outgoing guy, and a huge Dallas Cowboy fan.  I will never forget a LA Raiders/Cowboy game we went to.  I thought everybody in around us (LA Raider fans) were going to kill him.  My Raider Jersey saved us.  

Here is a brief interview with him in it.
<object width="525" height="432"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rMyKPkdNmMM&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rMyKPkdNmMM&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="525" height="432
"></embed></object>

A busy morning:  I want to have all my longs hedged by S&P 1420.  

WMT- Exited 2 units.  Stock exited @ 57.16, and June 52.5/57.5c for 3.65, 3.69 @ 57.40.

UST - has been a peach.  I am now fully rehedge.  I hedged my July 55c by selling June 55c for .95 and 1.00.  I made these hedges with the underlying @ 53.85 to 53.97.  My initial purchase for the May/July 55c was .75.  So this is in profit mode now.  I am liking it.

BTE - I am out of this dog, and I took a beating June/July 25c.  This Energy trust has been ramping and I didn't want to get assigned upon dividend date.  Better just to call it a loss.  There was a lesson in what not to do.  I sold the remainder for -.10 credit.

MFE - has been breaking down this morning, and is now at a critical level of support 35.95.  A break below this should take it down to about 35.30.  That would be incredible for my May/June 35c Calendar

BJS - Exited 1/5 unit of my July 32.5c for 1.10.  I will let the rest ride as planned.  We are right at the S&P previous high of 1422.

SPY - I bought a MAY 138/140/142p butterfly.  I like this little bearish bet with 2 days to go.  I probably should have just bought the 142p, but I like this play.

IWM - Added 1 unit of June/Aug 71c for 1.13.  I entered on the return to a IWM trend break.  We have Touched the 50% retracement of the October high to the March low to the penny.  This is a very worthy play.    I think we see the SPY closing very close the high open interest strike @ 140.

The S&P @ 1415 my Greeks read:
Delta 203
Gamma -973
Theta 192
Vega 834

While it continues to snow in Colorado, this seems like a good option.
<object width="525" height="432"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LGieQUAEATs&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LGieQUAEATs&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="525" height="432"></embed></object>]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 13 - Hedging and rehedging</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_13_hedging_and_rehedging.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.500</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-13T15:58:37Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-14T05:00:56Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Today is a good day, so far.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[It has been a busy morn.  I had a few things get done.  I am nearly hedged.  I see very heavy resistance above us.  Something is going to happen, and I don't know what.  So what is a boy to  do?

I have been reading a number of books, one of which is The Way of the Warrior-Trader by Richard McCall

<a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786311630?ie=UTF8&tag=skiproscom&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0786311630"><img border="0" src="51JZ1G01H3L._SL160_.jpg"></a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=skiproscom&l=as2&o=1&a=0786311630" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />

<blockquote>The real value of recognizing the reality, and dependability, of cycles to the warrior-trader is knowing that he should plan appropriately for holding on tight during the predictable hard times, and then be prepared to move like hell in the good times.  This reminds me of a person on a slow moving merry-go-round that passes by a basket of money once a month.  As he passes by the basket on each monthly cycle, he has only 10 precious minutes to grab all the money he can before the basket is out of reach again.
    The non-warrior simply sits back on his butt complaining about his poverty and lot in life.  When the money basket suddenly appears around the curve, he is taken by surprise and only has time to take a few reckless grabs at the money.  But the warrior-trader knows that the money (and all other positive, desirable things) will be coming back within reach eventually.  He has carefully conserved his energy and resources in preparation for the eventual return of his financial gathering opportunity.  And  thanks to the laws of Responsibily, Synchronicity, and Manifestation - the more ready and vigilant he i, the faster the Merry-go-round turns and the quicker the money basket comes around!</blockquote>

I like this quote for a number of reasons, but the most significant is the need to remain patient when that is important, and aggressive and decisively when it is time to be.

Here is what I am doing:

PM - Exited 2 units of Dec/Jan 55c for .15.  I wanted to take some off the table.

UST- Major rehedging going on.  bought back 1/3 of my May 55c for .05, and rehedged 1/2 of my portfolio with June 55c for .70 to .75.

POZN - Exited the only unit of May/June 10p for .10.  I bought this for a .05credit.

WMT - I may have entered in too early with a small position 1unit  @ 56.79.  I am looking for some covered option strategies Now.  
Bought a  unit of June 52.5c/57.5 bull call spread for 3.30  @ 56.70.  There was a major puke @ 1pm down to 56.38 of 4 million shares.   During that selloff I picked up another tranche of covered options @ 3.25. Whew.  I am not feeling that much financial heat, but yikes there are some big fellas getting out.

AFL- I called at audible on this.  I do like it, but I exited 1/3 of a unit at resistance.  June 65/70c out @ 2.45.

BJS - Exited 1/5 of my July 32.5c @ 29.97 for 1.00.  My analysis says this is going higher, but I wouldn't have forgiven myself if I didn't take some off the table at such a significant resistance point.  

BTE- Exited 1/4 of this June/july 25c position for a .15 loss.  Bummer.  I just don't want to get caught paying the dividend on these June shorts.

BBD - Exited  2units for a .15 loss.  Somewhat of a bummer to be force out.  Exited on a trendline break @ 22.86.

A drop in MFE would be exquisite.  something is going to happen above 37, or below 36.70.  I am hoping for DOWN.

Here is a song that is just about present.  I was listening to it while I was walking the streets in downtown Denver.  Unbelievably cool.
<object width="525" height="432"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/TDRT-bYRvMI&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/TDRT-bYRvMI&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="525" height="432"></embed></object>

Positions that are moving:
BJS - It was beaten on this morning, but now it is starting to move in my favor. UP.  
AFL - running into resistance @ 67.
COF - flying into my butterfly net.
HR- It has given back all of yesterday's gain
IMA- Sold at the top yesterday, It has moved all the way down to support.
YHOO- Is getting no love.  No problema though.  I have a  covered option position with max profit @ 25 and above.  Carl Icahn is pushing for new board, the stock is catching a bid!
IACI - is running up and away from my calendar.

End of the day, I am sitting on:
Deltas + 883 Upward movement would be beneficial, but I am well hedged.  (BBD, UST, HR, AFL) provide all of the positive Delta exposure.
Gamma -773.  
Theta - 137, I would like to put more theta decay.
Vega - 1002.  And increase in Volatility would be helpful.

As I mentioned yesterday, my portfolio is taking very large swings.  Down 6% on the day.  I am still not worried, but I would like to find some good calendars.  I don't see many really good opportunities at this time.

]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 12 - Back from some instruction</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_12_back_from_some_instruct.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.499</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-12T17:07:13Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-12T21:20:31Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I attended a course, and put some of the information to good use</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[I have been a busy bee since my last post.  On Thursday and Friday I attended a Profit Strategies AIM seminar.  I met some nice people, and although I didn't learn anything new, I did remember a few strategies which I haven't been using.  About a year ago I attended a seminar which gave me some very good position sizing information.  I am now in a very good "space' to begin incorporating some of these strategies.  

During the event I was monitoring a few positions, and made some trade adjustments.

MFE - Exited half of my May/June 35p calendars for .90, today I exited another 1 unit for 1.00. 
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/MFE%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/MFE%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="452" alt="MFE%205.12.gif"/></a>
 

AIG - was hammered on friday, I exited my short May 46c for .05.  Now I am long 2 units of the June 46c.  I am playing a double bottom bounce.  I am also very grateful to have taken off 6 of my 8 units of my calendar spreads for nice profits between .90 and 1.23 last week.  

UST - I have exited half of my short May 55c for .10.  I am holding the July 55c.  If we get a move upward, hip hip horray.  IF not, I have some profit build into the trade, and UST is holding within it's trend channel 51.5 to 58.5

JPM - On thursday, I exited the remaining 3 units of May/June 42.5p calendar for .73.  The underlying price = 45.45.  Today the stock is trading @ 47.07.  I made a well timed trade!  

Over the weekend, I started looking for a few trade setups that may work.
This is what I have put on this morning:

BBD - Long 2 units of Sept 25c for 1.55 and 1.45.  I like this on a light volume pullback the past few days.  
This offers me a 3.4 return:risk ratio for my target price and my stop loss.

AFL - as per my plan over the weekend, I am now long of June 65/70c spread for 2.05 and 2.00.  This offers me a 3.69 return:risk ratio, and a very nice short timeframe, June 4th
AFL
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/AFL%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/AFL%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="452" alt="AFL%205.12.gif"/></a>

HR - Healthcare realty trust entered 2 units @ 27.52.  May 15th, this stock goes ex-dividend with a very nice $.385 quarterly dividend. But better yet, it is a very nice trade setup, by June 4th.
Healthcare Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust that integrates owning, managing and developing income-producing real estate properties associated primarily with the delivery of outpatient healthcare services throughout the United States.
HR Daily
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/HR%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/HR%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="452" alt="HR%205.12.gif"/></a>


BJS - Everybody needs a good BJs, I picked up a unit of the Jul 32.5c for .75, with a time horizon of June 5th.  It offers a 8.9 reward:risk with this option strategy, by June 5th.

<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/BJS%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/BJS%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="483" alt="BJS%205.12.gif"/></a>

IWM - I added 1 unit to my 71c June/Aug Calendar for 1.23 @ 72.71.  I like the overhead resistance and the topping tail Created @ 11am.  

TXN - I picked off a below market order that needed to get filled, added 5 units to the trade.  June/July 30p for .30, it was marking at .32.  At this time there are no apparent catalysts, as earnings was last month, and the fills at that price have ceased.  I have beefed up to a 3.5% allocation across 6 accts, and have added to the "once rolled" position for a average price of .24.  Very nice as we trend in a tight range.  I am leaving some room to add at future prices.

TXN Daily with Breakevens and Expiration
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/TXN%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/TXN%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="483" alt="TXN%205.12.gif"/></a>

IMA - I waited all day on this one!!  Got short.  bought 1 unit of  Aug 30/22.5p for 1.45.  On a capitulation to the upside @ 34.98.  This was relatively weak all day long.  This trade offers a 8:1 reward to risk.  
IMA
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/IMA%205.12.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/IMA%205.12-thumb.gif" width="525" height="452" alt="IMA%205.12.gif"/></a>


I have traded well today.  Found a plan, and took the positions.  The only mistake in retrospect was to go at full directional allocation with AFL (1% of acct).  But other than that, I  made good entries in everything else.

I am up 3.5% on the day, however I am not holding by breath.  My P/L has been taking some mighty swings on an intraday basis.  But overall, I am very pleased.  UST moved up at the end of the day.  Oh, joy it would be to see that rally.]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 7th - chop chop and adjustments, pm selloff</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_7th_chop_chop_and_adjustme.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.498</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-07T15:14:26Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-07T21:29:05Z</updated>
   
   <summary>A few moves, a few adjustments</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      I am still scratching my head a bit here.  I am taking some risk off the table as I maneuver through earnings.  I am short term bullish up to S&amp;P 1440 or until the trend breaks, as we are still moving up the uptrend line, however I am gearing up for some very bearish times ahead.  

Today:
DTV - announced good earnings and my spread moved away from me slightly.  I sold 4 of my 10 25p May/Jun calendars for .35, then another for .40, then .36.  We are bumping right against the channeling highs.  If we can get it to close the gap to the downside, this could be a really good and profitable trade.

AIG - sold 1/3 of my May/June 46c between .90 and .95,  The a second tranche was sold at 1.09 and 1.10 then a third for 1.23 before the close.  Earnings take place on friday.  I wanted to take some risk off.  I am also thinking we will get some time of Volatility crush before earnings and I may be able to reload.  This spread has been absolutely CRAZY.  .55  up to 1.06, down to .75 up to 1.02, down to .55 up to 1.09, down to .84 then up 1.23.  Insane.

RRD - Exited my last half of May June 30p calendar for .30.  RRD broke out above 30 this morning, and was in Negative theta decay area.  It was time to take my .01 after commission and call it quits.  I exited the other half for .40 a few days back.  Earnings took place on Tuesday.

MFE - Sold 1 unit of May/June 35p for .80.  I will be slowly peeling these off.  Earnings has passed, and right now I am seeing some pressure in the underlying.  I originally bought these between .37 and .45.

Just made some coin on my Mystery stock.  Bought for 50c calendar for .02 sold for .15.  I sold 3(105) of my 16 units.  I still have a long way to go, but the good news is that we have some buyers.

JPM - I unwound my May/June 45/42.5p for .36, and May/June 42.5p for .70.  Those credits were pure profit as I have already rolled  the April/June 42.5 and 45 s last month.  Loving it!  I left 1 42.5 calendar spread on in each of my accts in case we get a good morning selloff.

AMX - Aug 60/70c for 2.45 and lost .42 on this trade.  Directional trading sucks.

I continue to lighten up. Whew.
Position Greeks

Delta + 654 (non-weighted)
Gamma   -984   I am continuing to lighten as we move to expiration week
Theta 322
Vega 1043  I will continue to benefit as volatility rises.  We were up 7% in vol today.

I lost on some, made money on some today.  But overall I was up 4.6% on the day, and that makes 20.38% this month.  I am very pleased.  




   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 6th- I had a dream</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_6th_i_had_a_dream.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.497</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-06T11:52:25Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-06T21:11:13Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I woke up this morning with a stark realization</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[Yes indeed I had a dream.  I woke up early with a thought, which I believe was divinely inspired.  Yesterday I thought to myself, "Maybe I should get long this pullback".  This morning at 4:30, I thought to myself, "What pullback!"

Fundamentally this country is in a heap of crap.  Without looking at a chart, I intuitively believed the we have 1 up and 10 down (actually it is 2 up and 15 down), I plan on exiting the remainder of my mutual funds on a rally.

Also, how often do TV's talking heads declare the worst is over.  And then only a week later, after the market has fallen dramatically, the bring on the "doom and gloomers", and get the once market buyers talking about how they will "weather the storm", or they believe this is a "great buying opportunity".  Or they use the naive line "I am a long term investor", blah, blah, blah.  I am a long term investor too, I just decide not to take large losses over a long period of time.  I have noticed this line of thinking on all the upmoves during this downtrend.  I thought Tim Knight made his point beautifully in <a href="http://slopeofhope.com/2008/05/bull.htm">yesterday's blog.</a>

Finally, to use the thought that "I am a long term buy and hold investor" without hedging my portfolio is basically saying, "I am unwilling to learn, or too lazy to think about managing my money in a portfolio".  I know a very astute long term investor, who put together a <a href="http://www.optionseducation.org/strategy/collar.jsp">collar strategy</a> (for a credit to his acct.  In otherwords, got paid to take out insurance) to protect his portfolio. 
To be investing long only in this market is a fool's game.  I know long term the market always goes up.   Right...
Well it has taken 7 years to get back to the high of 2000 in the S&P index.  The Nasdaq is only half way there.  And it took 24 years for the market to make it back from the top in 1930.  Even if the trader/investor didn't know how to bias themselves short the market, why would they spit into the wind of a hurricane?

Although I am not really a fundamental guy, think about this:  
1) $4 and talk of $5 gas.  (I know the UK and Europe live with much higher fuel prices, but driving across the UK from the Cliffs of Dover on the English Channel to the Holyhead Island on the Irish see is just 295 miles.  The width of Colorado is 376 miles.)  

2)The difficulty for people to refinance their homes.

3) The recent market march is based on people getting $600 each in tax rebate (republican payola), and low interest rates for the financial companies (but more loosening is nearly over).

Now, to confirm some of this I opened a chart and made a few lines.  Here is what the tea leaves tell me.
Most importantly, we are running into Major Resistance from:
Overhead inventory at this 1410-1430 level
200 day MA @ 143.28 (and decreasing everyday)
Touched the underside of the Primary down trendline
Retraced 50% of the total down move from highs in October to March lows on lighter and lighter volume.
Near the top of the Bollinger Band channel

<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/SPY%205.4.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/05/SPY%205.4-thumb.gif" width="525" height="428" alt="SPY%205.4.gif"/></a>


There is talk of resistance becoming support at the SPY 139 level.  I think it may be more in the 137-138 area, and of course the 50 day MA at 135.  We will see how that holds.  In the medium term, the market seems to want to try for the 200 day MA at 143.  I don't doubt it gets there, but I will be selling into that rally.

As I prepare for the trading day and look at my position Greeks, I notice a few notable things:

Deltas (non-weighted) are positive 893.  This prefers a upward bias, which I do not have.
Gamma - negative 1521.  Gives me more volatility risk than I prefer.  I would like to roll the remainder of my May calendars to June.
Theta - positive 554.  I like the speed at which I am earning on my short May and June options.
Vega - positive 1335.  I like this, as I see general market volatility should rise in the next few days

Yesterday's entries:  Quiet day, but the acct was up 2% on the day.  16% for the month of May.  
YHOO - 1 unit of a diagonal spread.   Buy July 17.5c/ Sell 25c against it for 5.50.  This offers an opportunity for a 37% gain in the first month, and the opportunity to roll it into a credit spread for July.

SIGM - Entered 1 unit of June/July 20p for .30.

Tuesday:
FNM had incredibly bad lack of earnings in their report.  The stock opens down.  This is the 3rd quarterly loss in a row. So what should happen???  It is up 10% off the low.  WTF?

Entered SDS 57.02 (effectively short the mkt) on an S&P break down with very poor A/D line, stopped out at 56.69.  Bummer
AMX - Long 1 unit Aug 60/70c for 2.87 on a break to the upside into a gap.

Mystery Stock - Added another large unit of the 55c calendar.  Whew.  this is getting big.  Legged out of a very small portion for .10.

SIGM - Sold June/July 20p calendar for .40.  I am a little pissed that I chickened out and pulled my .25 orders, that I may have been filled on.  But that is OK.  The stock moved up sharply today, away from my strike.  Yet the spread moved out.  Very nice.

LOW - Sold 1 unit of Jun/Jul 25p for .30.  I just wanted to lighten up to a 5% allocation.  I was a slightly overdone.  There is a 4:1 reward to risk on this trade, with breakevens 22.80 and 27.50.

TXN - Rolling the last half of my May/July calendar for .56 and .57.  I made the trade near the down trend line @ 29.64.  I originally put this trade on for .50. And I rolled the first half @ .48.  Now it is a June/July for a .02 credit.  Very nice. This takes off significant Gamma risk from the position, about half.  It is all part of a larger plan... ***Muuhaahaa***

COF - added 2 June 55/50/45p Butterflies for .72 and .70 @ underlying price of 56.85.  I don't think we are done with this Consumer Credit crisis.  5:1 reward to risk.   Breakevens 54.30 and 45.70

When the day was finished my acct was down .6%.  Up 15.4% on the month.  I am good with that as I consolidate gains.  At one point I was up 4% and down 8%.  That is to be expected.
My positions greeks have changed since yesterday a little, for the better.

Delta + 120
Gamma -1212
Theta +472
Vega +1291

Markets rallied today from an opening gap lower.  Gap down 8, up 11 on the SP at the end of the day.  Volume was the lightest in the month of May.

A random thought... Is Dick Armey a real name.... I think I would have chosen Richard, or Rich, or Fred, or...._____________]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 2nd - Job report -</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_2nd_job_report.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.496</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-02T13:50:31Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-03T05:00:55Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Jobs were bad, just not THAT bad</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[We didn't loose as many jobs as we thought we would loose.  So, the pre-market makes a strong morning move.  Here are some significant lines of resistance:
Primary downtrend line 142.47 and the 200 day MA is 143.27

The Fed also announced an increase in it's Term-Loan Action Facility (TAF).  Basically, it continues to make to loans to financial institutions to increase liquidity.

Headlines - BBC -"US Jobs data gives positive shock"     CNN - "Job Losses Continue"
Reuters - "Jobs Shed for 4th straight month"'

Those are important.  We are approaching a point where I become a dip buyer.  But that is difficult for me in the face of an overtapped consumer.  What I am really looking for is to find more and more of my summer trades.  Trades where direction is irrelevant.  And going into today's strong market, it looks like I will be very wrong about being lower at the end of the week.  Fortunately I have been delta positive this week, with some breakout positions to the downside.

<blockquote>There are just four kinds of bets.  There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose.  Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future.  You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you."

-- Larry Hite, commodities trader</blockquote>
Trades:
COF - Exited for .80.  Today's strong rally goofed this one up.  Fortunately it was just a 1 lot order.

AIG - This is frustrating.   I bought 1 more unit @ .60, then flipped it for .76.  This has taken a dramatic turn for the worse, however it is well within it's breakevens 42 and 51.

IWM - rolled my May to June 71c for 1.09.  I tried to eek out a few extra cents yesterday, and I messed up.  I just wanted to get this done.  I rolled this on a pullback to the up trendline.

XLE - Sold 1/2 of my May/June 82p for 1.57, 1.58.  I just wanted out, and I am selling into this relief rally.  It is time to free up some mental capital and look for my summer plays.  

RRD- Exited 1/2 of my May/Jun 30p for .40.  This trade gave a 40% after commission return, and I didn't have to go through earnings with it.

FFIV- June/July 25p for .33 with Underlying @ 24.53.

The mystery stock spread is opening up slowly.  If all goes well I will pick up some more today, and I am banking on it correcting soon.

It was quite a day.  After being down 3.5% on the day and 4% on the week,  I saw a nice 9% pop in the overall accts today.  I am up very nicely on the month as well.  

I finish off the day:
Delta   +401, 
Gamma -1412 (my summer trades and rolling May calendars to June calendars should lower this)
Theta 371 (nice going into the weekend with 14 days left until expiration)
Vega 1281

We will be opening up the week with 46 days until expiration, so I will be looking for June calendars over the weekend.  I will also be looking for some long trades to buy on pullbacks.
]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>May 1- A potentially incredible day</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/05/may_1_an_incredible_day.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.495</id>
   
   <published>2008-05-01T16:12:29Z</published>
   <updated>2008-05-02T02:10:11Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Summer started today.... with a snow storm.  Gotta love it</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      It is snowing in Breckenridge.  We are supposed to get 8 to 15 inches of snow today.  And that is good by me.  I have been trading well this morning.  the acct has been fluctuating between 1 and 5% gain on the day.  I was also pleased to have a .8% gain at the close of yesterday.  And one of my summer plays just sprang.  

I am in the front end of putting on a 2500 lot order.  So far I am about 1/4 of my way through the order.  It should be a peach.  I have also been enjoying this up move.  I had 1500 positive deltas at the close of yesterday.  With SPX at 1394, I maintain 370 positive (unweighted) deltas.

Trades-
TXN - Adjustment  I rolled 1/2 of my short May 30p into June 30 for a credit of .48.  My initial cost on this May/July was .50.  Now I have .02 of initial risk on the table.

LOW - Added 4 unit of Jun/July 25p for .23, .21 and .20.  The underlying price ran away from me a little.  I have back up orders in case of Vol fluctuates.

IWM - I rolled 1/3 of my Short May 71c to June 71c for 1.11 @ 72.54.  I would have liked to have take some risk off the table.

AIG -  I added 1 unit 46c spread for .85.  I am a bit nervous with the strong breakout type action today.  However, it touched the underside of it downtrend line today.  

??? - 8 units of my mystery stock for even and .05. I also put on the Call calendar above it for .00. I sold a 5 lot of the primary calendar @ .10 to see if the other side was filling.  It did eventually.  Whew.  Overall this makes me a little nervous, only because of the P/L swings intraday.  I needed to go take a shower, to relax.  During that time, I reminded myself, this is my plan.  Time to take action.  So I came back and bought another tranche for .05.  I now own more than the previous open interest.  And my ave price is .025.  Very nice.  
     The Reward to risk on this trade is 38:1, and my historic probability on this type of trade is a 94% success ratio.  I can live with it.  And at the close my 560 contract position has is slightly Delta Positive +160 and +460 Vega, and there is a front month Vol Skew of .5%.  

I have made my acct value into &quot;privacy mode&quot; so that I can&apos;t see it flop around.  Gulp.  Will now look for the next trade.

When all was said and done my accts were off 3.5%, 3%of which was my new mystery trade.  I am OK with that, as it is to be expected on day 1 of a trade such as this.  I am 1/3 filled of my full 5% allocation. 

I made a number of good rolls today... TXN, IWM
Sweet ones:  MFE
Some trades that got away from me a little today are UST, XLE, LOW, AIG.

At this time I have 4 of 18 trades underwater, although not much.  I feel good going into  the last 15 days of the month, albeit I do want to get through tomorrow&apos;s jobs number.

Current greeks
Delta (non weighted) 333
Gamma -1484
Theta 424
Vega 1374

So what does this tell me?
Generally, if the market (my positions) moves up I will make 333 for every point we move up (Delta).  It equates to about a Delta of 5 (SPX weighted)
Gamma - you may be able to tell I am an options seller as we have a negative Gamma, and I have sold mostly ATM options as I relatively high Gamma number implies.
Theta - Again you probably can infer that I am an option seller as I collect 424 everyday that the market (my positions) stay right here.
Vega - If we see a 1% rise in IV then my portfolio gains 1374.

Another note, If I do nothing from here, and the market basically chops around here...  Negative Gamma will increase, as will positive Theta.    Also, the more violently we chop could see an increase in Vega will will boost my back month options in my calendars.  

So, according to the greeks and how I am positioned, what would be best?
And overall, slight rise with some choppy action, but primarily staying in this 1400-1420 level.  

A side bar- My UST position is a low negative beta position, so if the market declines UST should rise (tabacco trade).  So in reality, I would like to see the market move down between 1380-1400 with some whipsaw chop.
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>Apr 29- Looking for a quiet day with a down bias</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/apr_29_looking_for_a_quiet_day.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.494</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-29T13:40:56Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-30T03:24:51Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Getting ready for a quiet day, and preparing for the fed announcement.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[Tomorrow is a Fed Announcement.  It is anticipated that we get a 25 bp cut, and nothing after that.  People have nice gains over the past 10 days, and I think they will want to take a little off the table prior to the announcement.

I am looking to roll a few Calendars from May to June.  I will probably roll half, however I am looking for a little pop up in these issues to bring the underlying back to the center strike.

at 9:10am, I would like to see a further drop in the IWM so that I can adjust my 67p spread and take some money off the table.  However it looks like a snoozer today between 1388 and 1400.

President Bush spoke this morning, and gave a great idea...  The Farm Bill, farmers don't need government subsidies!!!  Nor do the Energy companies, have them spend their own profits on Exploration and development.  In fact, with his talk of need for new refineries he may have laid the ground work for subsidies to build them for the oil companies.  Let's hope I am wrong there.

Here is a stupid CNBC comment/headline of the morning!
"If you missed the 5 biggest up days of the year, you missed out on an increase of 12% on your porfolio.  Yeah, and you missed out on a 8% overall decline on your portfolio.   Just get back to what you do best and report on Mylie Cyrus magazine covers.  Sheesh.

Adjustments - 
IWM - I have rolled my May 67p to June 67p for .80-.82 credit around IWM 71.50.  I decided to roll at the point where the A/D went back to even, and the TRIN was @ .70 (bullish).

TXN - rolled 1/4 of my May to June 30p for .46.  I couldn't get the .47s done.
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/txn%204.29.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/txn%204.29-thumb.gif" width="525" height="360" alt="txn%204.29.gif"/></a>



Currently I am reading The Way of the Warrior Trader by Richard D. McCall.
<iframe src="http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=skiproscom&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0786311630&fc1=000000&IS2=1&lt1=_blank&lc1=0000FF&bc1=000000&bg1=FFFFFF&f=ifr" style="width:120px;height:240px;" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0"></iframe>

It is pretty good. 

I have an ongoing podcast I listed to by Steve Croft @ TradingPostFX.com  It is fantastic. In the latest episode he talks about a 3-step Approach for Growth.

1) Finding a trading strategy that fits who you are.  I think I have found a core strategy that works well for me.

2) Be honest with yourself.  Do you enter and exit trades as you say you will.  Do you take inventory of your situation, and create plans to enhance your results

3) Be committed and disciplined in your approach.  

I believe I am all of these, however, I am finding stress this week because of sitting on hands and "not being productive".  Fortunately I have 380 positive theta points working in my favor.  But again, I do find myself being anxious.  I need a trading partner or coach to help me talk myself down from the tree.  So far this month I am up 12%, and 32% for the year.  I am pleased with that in the macro picture, but I really want to start finding my trades.  The ones that offer me very large profits (100-500%) per week, with lower stress.  I altered one of my scanners to find them again.  And in the mean time I will be working my 80-150% gainers in a month.  Samples of that are TXN, MFE, UST, AIG.  I have them.  I must be patient, and continue to grow my mind, and my discipline.  

Sometimes the biggest problem I have is "wishing" the week/month would end so I can take my large profits off the table.  The irony is that I have already put my next series of trades on.  I know better than to wish time away.  I do enjoy the present time.  Although, I get into these modes of thinking that just propel me too far in the future.  And for me, that is no way to live.

I have made a decision to hire a "life coach" now, and a trading coach at the end of June.






]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>Apr 27, 2008 - preparing for the week, and a rant</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/apr_27_2008_preparing_for_the.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.493</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-28T04:04:09Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-28T21:04:29Z</updated>
   
   <summary>As I prepare for the week, I will look to 4 indices for ideas and guidance.  And I have something to say</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[As I prepare for the week, I can't help but to hear the real news.  The US economy is crap, 40% of the S&Ps earnings are derived from oversees, housing market in the toilet (and should decrease by another 20%),Credit Card balances are at an all-time high (and rising at an unprecedented rate), savings is at an all-time low rate (0%), and the threat of raising the Capital Gains taxes by the Dems.  

All that and the market averages continue to rise.  As well they should.  The bear needs to take a breather.  I managed to play the bounces from the downtrend, and the uptrending lines very well the past two week.  I managed to adjust the Deltas in my portfolio to play a drop then bounce, all the while keeping Theta decay firmly on my side. Personally I would like to see the averages drop 3% in the next few days, but the bottoming tails of Wednesday and Friday make me wonder.  Fundamentally, the 40% oversees profit exposure should offer some lift to the S&P (unlike the Russell).

SPY Weekly
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/SPY%20Weekly%204.27.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/SPY%20Weekly%204.27-thumb.gif" width="525" height="381" alt="SPY%20Weekly%204.27.gif"/></a>

As I look at the chart, I have three possible trades (assuming further range consolidation):
1) if the market drops to the uptrend line I will get long with a May BWB or credit spread.
2) if the market surges to the downtrend line I will probably do the same thing.  
3) buy a May 137/140/143 butterfly and see if the market will fly right into the "consolidation net".  That seems like an interesting possibility.  A very inexpensive way to play this.  .60 for the call or put butterfly.  The put butterfly eliminates my dividend risk due to early assignment.  Also my profit zone is between 137.6 and 142.4, with a potential 4:1 reward to risk (spy @ 139.6).  This strategy will probably work out best if put on prior to the Fed announcement while IV should see a bump.

The 4th possibility (and possibly likely):
I will be looking for a breakout from consolidation.  And I feel like the path of least resistance is up.

As I prepare this post, I sit slightly Delta positive (+3 Deltas - beta weighted to the SPX), and 350 positive theta points.

Now the IWM (Russell 2000) - This is much weaker than the S&P.  Technically, the upmove has been on very weak volume, and the DMI shows very little trend.  Fundamentally, it has much less exposure to the Global Market (I don't know the figure, but if you do send it to me with the place to find it). It has found it's 38.2% retracement and has touched the PRIMARY downtrend line.    It has much less reason to rally.  I have a few nice 71c and half as many 67p - 2 month calendars to take advantage of sideways to slightly down action.  
I would be very surprised to see the IWM get much above 72.90 (bollinger band and previous high)

<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/IWM%204.27.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/IWM%204.27-thumb.gif" width="525" height="398" alt="IWM%204.27.gif"/></a>

There has been a lot of talk about the power of the Nasdaq, although MSFT put some holes into that thesis last week.  I haven't looked at it in awhile.  Let's see.

I can see NO reason to own the Nasdaq long here.  There is significant resistance here.  200 day MA, 50% retracement, downtrend lines.  Yuck.  There looks to be 2.5pts to the downside, and .50 of upside.  I will be selling this into strength.  Selling at 47.80 looks great to me.
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/QQQQ%204.27.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/QQQQ%204.27-thumb.gif" width="525" height="385" alt="QQQQ%204.27.gif"/></a>

Well, I have reviewed an index of 500, 2000, and 100.  And what would a review be without reviewing a composite of what the public thinks of the stock market.  An index of 30 stocks.  Although, these are Global in scope (so they should be the strongest, well see).

DIA daily
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/DIA%204.27b.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/DIA%204.27b-thumb.gif" width="525" height="385" alt="DIA%204.27b.gif"/></a>

It certainly is strong in comparison to the other charts.  i.e. The Dow has moved above it's primary uptrend line from 2003.  Large bottoming tail on friday.  And it would not surprise me to see a shooting star being formed bouncing on the underside of the 200 day MA @ 13,070.  But I would like to see a high volume breakout if I were to turn bullish here.  Until then, it has not broken the primary downtrend and this ain't no friend of mine.  

RANT:
The media and politicians and everybody else who has said we are in the biggest financial crisis in since 1929 are full of CRAP.  Totally full of crap.  It is such a political stunt it is unbelievable.  I feel very badly for those at Bear Stearns who were forced to hold the bulk of their savings in BSC Stock.  But may Jimmy Cayne and Alan Schwartz be doomed to a life of Muni Golf (doubtful).  Traders have massive incentive to pump up the risk, because if they win their rewards are MASSIVE and other than the feel of the kill they don't "need" to do it again.  How many $3.9 billion dollar paydays does John Paulson need to live comfortably for the rest of his life.  God Bless him for that.  Someone had to be short the insanity that took place in the real estate market the past 7 yrs.  

Figuring the $3.9 B of personal earnings @ the current 15% cap gains rate.... That is $585 million in taxes that he is paying this year.  That should cover the entitlements we pay former members of congress for about a year ( I don't know the figure, but it is obscene).  Many of the lawyer types that get a seat in congress are well compensated (presumably when they leave) by prestigious law firms or "buy" companys which pay them very handsome sums of money to influence policy.  If we want to cut some government spending, I have an idea where to start...

Now, back to my original thought.  We are not yet in the worst stint since the Great Depression  We have dropped 18% in total value of the DOW from it's all-time high watermark.  However, with all the government intervention i.e. housing, Republican payolla (stimulus checks), and Fed intervention.  We should head back to Dow 10,000 just by the Law of Attraction.

<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/DIA%20weekly%204.17.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/DIA%20weekly%204.17-thumb.gif" width="525" height="385" alt="DIA%20weekly%204.17.gif"/></a>

Now look at the above chart.  We have had an AMAZING Bull run for the past 5 years.  Dow 7,460 to 14,211.  There SHOULD be a pullback, not massive intervention.  And as if we only have eaten candy, coffee, and low nutrition (very, very low interest rates) for 5 yrs, it should take us a long time to recover.  And now as we are trying to recover they "doctors" (PhDs) are giving us more stimulus.  Perfect.

Now if we did find a way to pull all the way to our previous 14,211 highs, that would probably be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime.  I would put 1% of my portfolio in some long term OTM put leaps and just wait. 

Well that is all for now.   I look forward to a great week.  I would guess we see some upward movement (over exuberance) on Monday and perhaps the morning on Tuesday, then the fed announcement on Wednesday will be interesting.  I say we finish the week lower than where we close on monday.

MONDAY TRADES:  It was a very slow creep upward.  

COF - bought 1 spread. Tester.  June 50/45 for 1.20.  Visa announces tonight.  It should be a great quarter, as they just came public a month ago.  A company pretty much comes out with great earnings EVERYTIME for the their first time., That should cause something to happen in COF.  COF is up 20% in the past 3 days, and it is bumping against a previous double top.  

IACI - Bought 4 units of Jun/July 20p calendar for .14.  I have orders backing it up.  Earnings announcement on Wednesday.

LOW - Bought 4 units of Jun/July 25p for .23.  4:1 reward to risk with 53 days until expiration.

BTE - June/Jan for .10.  With negative mid-mark price is sure makes the trade look bad.  the worst part about these trades is that it looks so bad on the bottom line upon entry.  

I find it interesting now.  Were as this time last year I would by tranches in 1,2,5 lots.  I now trade in 5,10,20, and 50 lot sizes for each tranche.  Pretty cool, although it does lead to loss of breath from time to time as I see more radical P/L swings.  But as a percentage, it is still the same as last year.  Very nice.

As the day closes  I close EVEN.  No P/L change.  That is good when I can enter 3 sizeable positions without be hammered on day 1.  

I close the day with
974 positive (non weighted) Deltas
and 
340 Theta points
and 894 Vega points.

]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>April 24 - It started off well..and finished that way too</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/april_24_it_started_off_well.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.492</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-24T15:07:07Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-25T21:30:57Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Wavy intraday market in a consolidating trend. </summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[It started off well, and although one should not cry over spilled milk.  XLE is a travesty.  I was out early the past two days.  I saw the trend break and used it to exit quickly, too quickly.  There are a few other bummers out there, CALM.  I moved up my stop and was stopped out... $6 ago... hmmm.

Everything commodity is getting crushed today.  A major unwinding.  My RIO position is off a bit.

On the very bright side:

UST announced some very nice earnings this morning and popped right into the sweet spot of my trade.  I am up 1.5% on the day, even with some of my early exits.

AIG has broken out to the upside this morning.  I delayed my exit on my hedge puts about 5 minutes too long, then I chased it and jumped the gun and I sold at 2.52.  My bad, but the overall position is looking very good.  For my 46c calendar.  It is up 50% since yesterday's entry.
UPdate, the May volatility is getting sucked out rapidly.  Perfect for my spreads, not so good for the person who bought my put.
A couple of friends entered this trade with me... I don't expect to ever have to buy dinner or drinks again ;)

TXN - is opening nicely too

RIO - added 1 unit of the 40p calendar for .79
I see us hanging in the index consolidation, even though we are experiencing some intraday chop.

My XLE 82p calendar opened a few cents.

I just returned from an afternoon of skiing A-basin.  I didn't want to do much more trading today.  I have done well this past week.  Today was quite good too.  I was up 2.8% on the day.  That makes the week up about 8% which I am happy about, and my acct has blow away previous high water marks.  

The SPX closed just below resistance of the downtrend, yet I remain net long:
Delta (SPX weighted) 9.5 positive.  
Theta 302 positive.  

This afternoon MFE reports.  Any thing can happen, but my Breakevens are wide, and I am entering this with a 1/2 allocation on in 4 different accts.  

FRIDAY UPDATE:
It was a quiet day on Friday.  SPX was up 10 at the open, then down 10 at midday, then closed up 9.  End result, I'd have to say. somewhat bullish.  The upward surge in the market closed us right on the downward sloping trendline.  Do we break early in the week?

S&P A/D line was 353/143.

I thought we may see a selloff for the MSFT news.  But no... the market opened up.  It is a crazy market.  I am looking forward to finding more of my "summer trades" in which I could care less what the market does.  I mean, where I can really care less.  Find my trade, and load up 5% of my portfolio with that trade, enter my position closing prices, then go play golf.  Ahhh, summer.

Here was the day:
Fortunately I was only down 1%. That is pretty much what I expected from the day.  After being up so much yesterday, and this week, there was bound to be a little volatility giveback.  However, I was up 6.8% on the week.  And that is up 13+% on the month.  Very nice.  Now I have the weekend to let some Theta decay happen.  

The weekend is here, and I am up big on the week.  I am going to...
<strong>Runaway</strong>
<blockquote><object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/pkGacEwwb9A&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/pkGacEwwb9A&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object></blockquote>

Trades:
RIO -exited 1/3 40p calendar for .82 and .84.  The underlying broke down and finally rallied a bit into the close.  It allowed me to get out with a very small .12 loss on just a few spreads.

IWM - picked up 1 additional 3 month May/Aug71c calendar for 2.20 with underlying @ 72.08 (May still has 1.20 of extrinsic value).  On the next big down move( if we get one), I plan on rolling my 67p May/Aug into June.

RSH - opened a 2 unit position Jun/Jul 17.5p for .15.  With monday being earnings, this 56 day trade has alot of time to be right, and the underlying's bollinger bands contain the breakevens nicely.  

Today was a snoozer, and even though we had a 20pt S&P range, there wasn't a whole lot going on.  I did create a scanner that searches out my "Summer Trades".  I look forward to get some bites soon.  

SPX - 1397.84   DIA - 128.80   IWM  71.90
Portfolio internals:
Delta (SPX weighted) 2.99
Theta 277.78  (I am a little nervous about being too delta neutral without explosion positions going into the weekend)




]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>April 23 - I&apos;m trading this day well</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/april_23_im_trading_this_day_w.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.491</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-23T16:02:44Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-23T21:05:57Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I&apos;ve got my groove on.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[Going into today I thought we would be seeing a brief morning selloff, followed by a rebound.  The long term 9 month downtrend is coming together with the 5 week uptrend.  It looks to be coinciding nicely with next week's Fed announcement.  My trades are primarily sideways.  

I managed to exit the remainder of my XLE 77p calendar for 1.23 (very small profit) @ 83.47.  
FAST- remainder of May 40p for .20 @ 49.24.  I think someone made a mistake at the beginning of the day and bought these.  I am quite sure they will be expiring worthless.

The portfolio is  up nicely on the day 1.4%, and I am 1% off the portfolio's all time high.  Very nice.  TXN has popped up, as has UST, and AIG has continued to drop.  Perfect

Essentially what I see on both of these charts is a coiled spring starting to develop.  My fundamental thoughts are as such:
40% of S&P earnings are made from out of the US.  The IWM is much less as they are smaller companies.  If I was pair trading this, I would be long S&P, short IWM.

IWM Chart
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/IWM%20Apr%2023.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/IWM%20Apr%2023-thumb.gif" width="525" height="411" alt="IWM%20Apr%2023.gif"/></a>


SPY Chart- 
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/SPY%20Apr%20233.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/SPY%20Apr%20233-thumb.gif" width="525" height="411" alt="SPY%20Apr%20233.gif"/></a>


I am trading well today, patient and well planned.

AIG - I have been riding my 45p down the trendline.  Now I am hedging with long exposure in the way of May/June 46c calendar.  There is a large Vol Skew in this trade.  May is 60.5% vs June 47.2%. I choose this 46c calendar due to the breakevens and previous lows as support.  Breakevens without the current 45p protection is 40.2 and 53.2.  That pretty much covers the range of AIG for the past few months.  I think the news of ABK possibly getting downgraded is weighing on all of financial institutions.  AIG has a history of not letting all the bad news out at once.  That seems to be the cause of this volatility Skew.  Earnings isn't until the end of May. I will be out of the trade by then.  I bought these from .64 down to .56.  I picked up a 1/3 allocation.  I was trying to buy these down to .50 for a 1/2 allocation.  

AIG Daily
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/AIG%202.23.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/AIG%202.23-thumb.gif" width="525" height="411" alt="AIG%202.23.gif"/></a>

Here an article from RealMoney.com from "RevShark"
<blockquote>The financials have taken the wind out of the early positive action. Our old friend Ambac Financial (ABK - commentary - Cramer's Take) is the driving force, as concerns are now growing that after additional writedowns by Ambac this morning, there is a bigger risk that it will be downgraded to less than investment grade and trigger another $20 billion or so in losses at major financial institutions.

That is what is pressuring financials. Without a bottom in that sector, buyers are sitting on the sidelines and are not willing to put capital into this market. It doesn't much matter what earnings reports might show if we are still dealing with more debt issues and further liquidity problems.</blockquote>

XLE - I bought just a few calendars of this.  82p May/June for 1.47, 1.46, and 1.45.  Nothing big, but I like the breakevens.  78 and 87 for a 23 day trade.

DTV - Exited 3 units @ .45.  I still have 6 units on.  Earnings on May 7.  I may have more time to rebuy some positions.  After commission this was a 37% winner.

Closing report - So far so good.  The acct is up 3% on the day, and I am adding some good Theta decay exposure with a long bias.  SPX weighted Deltas = 18.4 positive, Theta @ 314 positive. 64% cash.

I am going to celebrate the day with a nice long bike ride.  ]]>
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>4/22 - Sucker&apos;s Game</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/422_suckers_game.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.490</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-22T15:22:16Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-22T21:06:49Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Snagged by directional trades, fortunately non-direction is working out beautifully.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      Swing trading my way to losses.  What a sucker&apos;s game directional trading is.  A frickin&apos; sucker&apos;s game.  

RIMM - JuneSold 130/145c for a 25% loss.  A bear trap that snagged me.  Within seconds the price started to recover.  Then fell again.

AEM - dropped below my stop, I got out, then it moved back up above my purch price.

CHD - Stopped out @ 55.72.  Then it continued to fall.

The good news is that due to &quot;Smart Trading&apos;, selling options with non-directional strategies my acct is up nearly 2%, although evaporating as the day moves on.

 TXN has run the gauntlet of earnings, and it is off today.  The current breakevens remain between 28.2 and 32.15.  A very nice risk reward remains, but disappointing that I didn&apos;t cover half of the spreads at the open.  

RIO - 40 calendar remains in good shape

AIG puts are looking good too.  I am starting to peel them off at the 61.8% fib level.  Sold  May 45p @ 2.07, 2.09

A trade from the past.  HON - I rolled a few, NOT enough from April to May.  Now the price action on HON is mocking me.  Dropping below 59, The spreads which I rolled for .95 credit (should have been all of them) are now worth .60.  That would have been a nice profit rather than a fat loss.  Lesson - don&apos;t be greedy on the rolls.

XLE - as I mentioned a few days ago was a dumb entry for me.  I was taking a beating on that earlier today.  I had a May/Jun 77p for about 1.10.  The market has moved high the past few days.  The spread was as cheap as .85 this morning, and it was in a theta decay negative position.  Never what I want from a calendar spread.  On a  below trendline break I managed to get out between 1.05 and 1.08.  My loss was as much as 23%, I pared it back to just a few cents.    What a goofy trade.  I feel good for taking this junk off.  I still have a few spreads on.  I guess I caught a volatility spike in the put side.  That got me out at a good price.  (Huge put buying in the May XLE)

When all was said and done, I was up 1.3% on the day.  I was really down on myself early, but the acct came back.  I am well positioned for an up tick tomorrow.

I close out the day with:
Deltas 16.6 positive deltas (SPX weighted)
Theta  270
Vega  678

I am very pleased to be in this spot.  Basically I am in good shape between 67 and 72 on the IWM which translates to 1345 and 1410 on the SPX.  Ideal.
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>4/21 -Closing day at the ski area</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/421_closing_day_at_the_ski_are.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.489</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-21T21:47:13Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-21T22:00:14Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Employee ski day, but I&apos;d rather trade.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      This won&apos;t be a long post as I am driving down to Denver to see Eric Barden (trader/fund manager).  

I am going into the day a  little battered and bruised from Friday.  However, I did get a  few nice treats.  As I thought, some of my positions were wrecked due to Volatility swings.  Today I was up 1% on the day.  

The trade I was most nervous for was TXN.  I have a 3% calendar position through earnings.  it looks as though it has passed without incident.  This could be a nice wake up. I did make and miss a few trades today.

SDS-  Bought @ 58.35, stopped at 57.76.  This market is strong

CHD - bought @ 56.16

RIO- I missed the stock trade @ 38.48.  But I made a 4 unit entry on the May/June 40p calendar for .97.  It is a calendar with a directional bias.  

RIMM - entered a June 130/145c vertical for 4.70 on a breakout above 125.  

AEM - A wave 4 buy on a downtrend breakout on a bounce off the 50 day MA. June 70/85c for 5.15.

At the end of the day my SPX weighted portfolio greeks are:
Delta   -4.67
Theta   270
Vega    716

This is very good.  I can easily make my own bullish adjustments on breakouts to the upside.  But as it is, I am looking good with the status quo.
   </content>
</entry>
<entry>
   <title>Apr 18 - Rocket to resistance, S&amp;P 1393.  It hurts</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/2008/04/apr_18_rocket_to_resistance_it.php" />
   <id>tag:mysnowpro.com,2008:/jonathanlawson//5.488</id>
   
   <published>2008-04-18T15:09:27Z</published>
   <updated>2008-04-18T21:16:11Z</updated>
   
   <summary>I am getting slapped around a bit on this gap up.</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Jonathan Lawson</name>
      <uri>http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson</uri>
   </author>
         <category term="20 Jon&apos;s Trader Journal" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/">
      
      <![CDATA[I am disappointed in myself.  I let a full allocation ride into earnings and have been beaten.  I had been dodging bullets during earnings.  JPM, KO.  I had a feeling that HON's expectations were low going in, but I didn't take my risk off for a 5% loss, rather it looks like I will take a much larger loss.  My accts are stressed today.  Down as much as 6.5%, bummer. 

"Don't hold a full allocation going into earnings".  Just silly.

And as thought the SNY trade is turning ugly too.  Not a lot of good right now.

MRVL - Sold final unit of 12.5c for .27.  Small consolation, but I am grateful.

HON - My god I was murdered in these today. I am so disappointed in myself.  I could have exited half prior to earnings.  Then again when I was wrong, I could have exited on this mornings pull back.  Unfortunately I did neither.  And I sold the Apr/Jun 55c spread for .60.  And .80 loss @ 60.90.  I will write more on this later.  

I sit here just screwed.  the acct is down 6% on the day.  Incredible.  I have blown through long hedges.  IWM, and unfortunately put on more short exposure during the week XLE, IWM.  Ouch.  And my long exposured trades this week have been crap.  UST, CALM.  Damn.  

TXN - added 8 units of May/Jul 30p between .50 and .46.  A two month Calendar for .50 to .46.  Breakevens of 28 and 32.40.  this offers a 1.5:1 reward to risk in the front month.  Earnings are on Monday.  Did I not learn my lesson?  We will see.  I did put on a half allocation rather than a full.  Vol Skew in my favor.  31.7 vs 26.8.
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/TXN%204.19.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/TXN%204.19-thumb.gif" width="525" height="417" alt="TXN%204.19.gif"/></a>


SNY - Sold 37.5p calendars for .50 this was a mistake yesterday, as the calls were priced much better than the puts. I don't want to be making more dumb moves.  I made too many poor moves yesterday.

For what it's worth I just rebalanced my 401K.  I was 90% invested in Stocks from S&P 1315.  I have decreased my stock exposure to 40% and have the rest in Total Return/High Yield funds/Cash. If we get a continuation rally early next week we could see S&P 1430.  But it doesn't look like more than that in the short term.I will still be able to benefit from some upside, but there is still too much risk in the equities market to not pull some of the 8% gain off the table.

These are some of the trades I have positions in:  DTV earnings on May 7th.  The vol skew of my calendar spread is 7% in my favor.
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/dtv.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/dtv-thumb.gif" width="525" height="417" alt="dtv.gif"/></a>

UST - reversion to mean?  It is quite the channeling stock.  
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/ust%204%2C18.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/ust%204%2C18-thumb.gif" width="525" height="417" alt="ust%204%2C18.gif"/></a>

XLE - here was a mistake of mine.  I followed an advisory service recommendation.  Oops.  It was a bearish call hoping that the XLE has run too far too fast.  Obviously I believed it, even though it broke through upside resistance.  Now by May expiration might this be back between the breakevens.  Sure it could, but the chart is in clean air to the upside.  Not one of my best entries.  I haven't been defending my capital properly, and I am paying a price for it.  My bad.
<a href="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/XLE%204.19.gif" rel="lightbox"><img src="http://mysnowpro.com/jonathanlawson/images/2008/04/XLE%204.19-thumb.gif" width="525" height="417" alt="XLE%204.19.gif"/></a>

When all was said and done, it was painful.  My largest loss while trading for myself 4%.  I have 65% cash, but that is less cash than I started out the day with.  I will be diligent in my efforts to recoup that next week.  My 3rd down week in 18 months.  Off 2.1% on the week.  The worst part is that I started off the week bullish.]]>
   </content>
</entry>

</feed>
