I am lukewarm here. Other than being oversold and with the S&P @ the 1380 level (50 day MA), why the heck did we rally so hard??? It is very technically based. Some retailers saw a great improvement in earnings WMT and COST. Indeed the consumer did buy more at Wal-mart. Whoopty frickin do! So the consumer spent their $600 government check on goods at Walmart. Didn’t we already have a bull run expecting this??? And what now? I mean, DAMN. The IWM is approaching levels which we started 2008. Are things as good as it was last year around Christmas time? There has certainly been some destruction between then and now. And today, the figures come out… There are more foreclosures on the market than any time since that figure has been kept. Oil was up $5. Why were we up? What was the deal?
It rained all day, and snowed on the mountain (June 5th snow, picture on the morning of June 6)
If it sounds like I lost money today, I did in certain issues. 1% on the IWM. And I didn’t fully hedge my June calendar spreads with July’s. However, today’s rally did move some other issues in my favor. And when all was totaled, I was up .7% on the day. But I am still confused fundamentally. I see the bouncing trend of the SPY. It is just fluctuating between the 50 day MA, and the 200 day MA. That range is the place to play for now. I am a bit upset I didn’t act on what I saw, rather than what I thought.
I am also upset with myself for not hedging and being greedy with respect to my June/Aug 71c calendars. I could have take .74 of risk out of these positions two days ago. But instead there was greed and listening to more bearish input from others which clouded my judgement. Now I have paid for it. Hopefully we will see a downward move at some point. I will benefit from this in my IWM position. But now, IWM is in bull mode. It was decisive in breaking upward above the 200 day MA.
Here is the risk graph of a large trade which I have in place:
Ideally the price will stay between 56.50 and 59 during the course of the trade. It has already been testing my resolve early on. Yet it has stayed between the breakevens I have established.
KO – exited 1/2 unit of 60p calendar for .20. I wanted to exit some risk from the top of the range.
UST- 55c Jun/July for .75. I want to be exiting some of this, and put on a lower gamma calendar.
CHTT – Sept 55/45p. I exited @ 1.95. I exited early. I wanted to get out with profits on this trade.
I traded very little. I was burned on a few trades early in the week, GS, COF, PBR. All of those would have been magnificent winners today. But instead, I took small profits or small losses on those. hmmm. We will see what tomorrow brings. I think this bull has a ways to run. At least to the 200 day MA.
Friday, JUNE 6th update – I will post much more on this over the weekend.
SPX down 43, DOW down 399, IWM down 2.21, NDX down 64.
IWM- I was very active in position adjustments. The IWM remains in an uptrend, and I have hedged myself nicely for that possibility.
My acct was up 2%. Fortunately I did not get squeezed out of my IWM 71c calendars yesterday. I sold a few to take some profit, then as the selloff kept moving, I started rolling my calendars. I was down yesterday in this IWM position 1%, today I was up 1.5%.
Overall my portfolio was up 1% on the day, and 5.8% on the week.
I also picked up a few butterflies to the upside and downside.
CHTT – Went short again near it’s daily high (61.8% retracement) Sept 55/45p for 1.75.
AEE cracked hard today. My puts have gained value.
IACI – exited remaining June/July 20p calendar for .30. I am done with this trade. I exited prematurely
Consumers blow there $600, and the market rallies again. Or is it a technical bounce