10/3/2007 – a day to look for opportunity

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Beautiful fall day, 65*. I have just been relaxing today, reviewing some possible entries. This is the sweet spot week for 1 month out calendar spreads. I have been looking for some good B2B opportunities for the Nov/Dec calendars (44 days until expiration).


Beautiful fall day, 65*. I have just been relaxing today, reviewing some possible entries. This is the sweet spot week for 1 month out calendar spreads. I have been looking for some good B2B opportunities for the Nov/Dec calendars (44 days until expiration).

The Bad: I was filled on:
FISV- @ .30 . I bought 1 more unit. I put this on last night and missed it during my morning review. The spread gapped up at the open and I was filled. It is not hurting at this point, and I plan on getting out rather than adding to the position.
MU- Sold 1 unit for .90. Volatility didn’t get crushed like I thought it might, a Jan Straddle would have actually paid off very nicely. The stock did fall,and about 45 minutes after the open I exited. I still made money on the trade as a whole. This was the only unit I didn’t make a profit on. It was a risk I was willing to take.
The Good:
GS -continues to rally and volatility is increasing. This caused my backratio call spread to gain value today.
All my calendar flip spreads have increased in value today, except for PDLI and it’s take over rumors. I am looking to exit that one cheaply.
The Entries:
NVLS– 4 units of the Nov/Dec 27.5p entered between .31 and .33. This has a 2.5 : 1 reward to risk ratio and it has been in a consolidation. I have also been spreading it out between my 3 accts.
Mid-Qtr Earnings call transcript
I like the Nov volatility being 2.5% higher than the Dec as well. I believe with the Vol edge and the price action over the past 2 months, this is trade offers a nice edge.
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Implied Volatility Chart (Nov is 44 days away, Dec 79 days away)
NVLS%20Vol.gif
LOGI – 2 units of Nov/Dec 30p for .30. I like this a little less due to the bullish price action. But the trend of the past year is undeniably sideways. There is a 3/1 reward to risk and plenty of premium built into the Nov option I will buy a few more units if I am able. Again I like that NOV vol is 3% higher than Dec. Previous high was in Jan @ 30.90.
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LOGI Implied Volatility
LOGI%20Vol.gif
I just received this book and I am looking forward to the read:

Disclaimer: If you try these trades there is a possibility of losing money. I am not licensed investment professional. In fact, I am simple a former golf pro, and a ski instructor. So take my analysis for what it is worth… free.

One thought on “10/3/2007 – a day to look for opportunity”

  1. October 23 – Turning on the computer on Tuesday.

    I placed my buys and sells on Sunday night, and didn’t turn it on until late monday night. The Reason? I attended a Optionetics Seminar in Denver.

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