This has been a good month for trading as of the morning 11/30 I am down about 2%, but up about 11% on the month. This morning’s 15 pt (1485) S&P pop has shaken some of my positions. Yesterday I was looking to create a strategy for a downward push, as I think that the S&P will find resistance at 1491. The pop has sent my portfolio delta to -920, and Theta remains above 475. I am comfortable with it.
40 trainers at Breckenridge preparing to go out and ski together.
The big movers in my portfolio:
SBUX popped to its resistance.
USB tapped its resistance on the downtrend line @ 33.75. I picked up 4 more units of the Dec/Jan 32.5c @ .24-.25 (underlying 33.15). I am making my bet on a market reversal. I feel as though I have a nice edge here: Volatility, technicals, and theta decay. I sold 6 units of these for more than .40 earlier in the week. Being a chartist, I can’t be anymore confident in my strategy.
The calendar trades which are sitting perfectly:
ORCL dec/jan 20p (20.40)
RHT dec/jan 20p (20.08)
ADCT Feb/Jan 15p and 17.5c and 17.5p (16.55)
HRB dec/jan 17.5p and 20p (19.67)
YHOO dec/jan 27.5c (27.20)
These are the technical levels I am reviewing:
SPY – 149.1 is a 50% retracement, a spot of previous support and resistance.
Rallying on relatively weak volume.
200 day MA is 148.46 to act as resistance.
Tapping on a mid-range trendline.
The Fib numbers in the SPY and IWM have been working extremely well over the past few months.
Now it is possible and perhaps probable that the market moves up through 149 to touch the 50 day MA. This summer the market has been disappointing the MOST amount of people possible. A drive through perceived resistance would be a massive headfake, and hurt those who have stops in SPY 149 area, it would also hurt the bulls who jump on board just to get shut down and reversed at the 50 day MA (SPY 150.30). This scenario would take the SPY up to its down trendline.
It has been a pretty decent month. Not as explosive to the upside as the past 5 months have been. But solid.