1.9.08 – still little signs of life, but wait…

Short turn Turnaround ???


The market is chopping around a bit. The uncertainty is there, but the VIX is not showing it. currently the VIX is a little off on the day (25). UPDATE – the market is selling off hard at noon MST, and the VIX has still not popped. And my acct is feeling a little bit of pain, however I am sitting in 80%+ in cash.
Shorts have been working, not a single long has worked for days.
UPDATE 2 – Again the 2:30 hour was something special. A awesome rally of 30 pts today, yesterday 40pts down starting at 2:30pm. WOW
I was knocked out of a few positions early. And I ended up just a little down today.
USB- underlying is down below 28. I entered yesterday @ 28.54, and stopped out @ 28.24. A small but annoying loss. With all the financials, this has been a mess. Fortunately I escaped a bigger loss a few days back by pulling in a credit for the Jan/Feb 32.5p roll. But the position is still underwater.
ZMH – This I exited my 65/50p spread for a very small profit, the underlying was at 66 (previous support). I wanted to take some negative delta exposure for this healthcare related stock.
QQQQ- I exited this 48/53 position today for a small loss. (.29) on a 1/4 position. I was trying to feel for a bottom and entered at a technical level a the bottom of a trend channel. I was wrong, and I sold on a small rally (underlying @ 47.03).
I re-entered the same Feb position for 1.76 @ 47.22. I am playing the bounce. Second level at 47.55 for 1.85. As the TRIN remains under 1. I then was shaken out of my first position @ 1.82. This market is looney. I have 880 long deltas at this time. No need to do anything too stupid here. Who knows. I am going to stay light. And just hold on loosely to these calls. I still am holding onto my second level.
Here is some food for thought. This is the weekly SPY chart. Obviously the final week is not yet formed, however we see a continuation rally in the indicies we could melt up in a big way. The trendline is based from the Feb 2003 lows and the start of this current bull trend.
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Here is another, that I am not planning to miss. The FXI – China 25. It looks like it is coiling to pop. Perhaps a Strangle? Perhaps an outright long. Depends on this weeks action. Moves above 180 look long to me.
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New entries and adjustments:
C – 2 units Feb/Mar 25c for .40. I wanted to further hedge my prior position do the downside.
EOG – I like this as a Wave 5 sell. It meets my criteria, and I am looking for the next support down around 83. I bought a put spread with the underlying @ 88.85.
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DTV – 4 units of the Feb/Mar 20p for .25. I have 2 units of the Feb/Mar 22.5p for .30 from prior days. Underlying at time of writing is 21.19.
SCHW – 6 units of Feb/Mar 22.5p for .25. I also have 3 units of Feb/Mar 25p for .30. Underlying is now 21.79
ECL- I bought late in the day puts on this. Apr 50-45p for 1.65 with underlying @ 50.15. I am looking for this to drop to the trendline, and perhaps the previous wave 4 low.
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I am just about out of PPG, either way. But this is kind of amazing to me.
I entered this trade as it broke the EBOTrigger in the middle of December. I didn’t think it really would break so hard by Jan 11th. But here we are. Underlying at the time of writing is 63.64. The target is below 62.68. I bought the spread for .75, it is currently 2.05. The only problem is that I didn’t by many spreads. I exited @ 1.75 for the spread. Good play. On to others.
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