6/20 – Bears shaking the tree, but Bulls are holding on

There are some brief sharp moves down in the mkt, but the mkt remains resilient. I my screens for Sept/Aug calendars are active.


There are some brief sharp moves down in the mkt, but the mkt remains resilient. I my screens for Sept/Aug calendars are active.
I just started accumulating BUD (Anheuser-Busch), and BTU is getting there. BTU bounced down from it’s downtrending resistance line. hmmm. I will put a downward hedge on, if the price breaks below support. Not sure if it will be a Vertical Bear Put, or a Butterfly.
I am looking at:
BTU
MVL
FCS
NFLX
BMY
POZN
and entry levels in the .10 to .20 range
and
BIDU @ 1.65-.2.20
I would have like to have put on some BWLD during the past pull back, I just wasn’t able to get my price. Amazing stock. Google as well. I was looking at a July 520c/550/580 butterfly. I just chickened out. Oops.
STLD 45 jul/sept calendar is working well. Underlying is moving toward center strike. There is still much premium to go. My lowest fill buy price was .37. At this moment it is .70 (a little better than where I sold 2/3 of the position the other day). I just sold 1 spread for .75. As long as the underlying remains in place. I will hold one to the spread for another week or two.
CREE – In good shape. This is more of a sit on hands play.
I entered a BUD trade today. 2 level have been placed .13 and.12. for the 55p Aug/Sept Calendar (3% volatility skew). There is a significant amount of premium in this trade. There was an analyst downgrade to hold on this stock. Hold is good! Currently there is an 11:1 Reward to Risk ratio on this (Excellent). BUDs first level of support is 52.75, and it’s second is 50. I am getting ready to place a 50p calendar on the board as a hedge. I will do this if the price closes below the first support.
Current positions in:
AMTD – Calendar
BEAS -Calendar
BIDU – Multi-position Calendar
BUD – Calendar
COGN -Calendar
CREE – Multi-position Calendarr
FITB – Calendar
PALM -Calendar
SPF -Dynamic Hedge
SPY – Butterfly and Vert Bear Put
STLD -Calendar
XLE – Short Iron Condor
I usually don’t have this many positions on, however CREE and SPF are my only “big” positions at this time.
+++++++++
In the afternoon, the SPX broke down. excellent. In doing so, I picked up the BTU Butterfly trade @ 2 levels .55 and .50. The trade made: Aug 55c/60c/65c. I have only 1 unit on. And that is all I will place for this trade, unless the market (esp. fuels market picks up). 8:1 reward to risk ratio.
Peabody Energy Chart
BTU.gif
I put on 1 unit on each of these today. Aug/Sept 155p for 1.65, and Aug/Sept 160c. This offers a very wide break even. 142 to 180. Of course anything can happen here. But I like the “Horizontal work” BIDU put in through the month of May. If it rips through that during a selloff I may change my tune. But for now, I like the 3:1 Reward to risk ratio with BE’s that wide.
Baidu Chart
BIDU.gif

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