Weather Alert- The first day of snow in Breckenridge Sept 17. No accumulation but it snowed for about 2 hrs.
I very much enjoy preparing for my week on Sunday morning. As I preview my week it is 45* and a bit misty outside. The market is pumping up some front month option premium. There are some good Oct/Nov calendars out there. The Fed announcement is a potential catalyst, although I don’t see any positive with announcements.
No Change – The market falls because the housing and financials are loosing
1/4% – acknowledging weak growth. Although with proper wording, the market will perceive the Fed is on the job. This is probably the best case scenario. There will still be sellers, believing the fed is not doing enough.
1/2% – The fed perceives the economy NEEDS stimulation. This really isn’t a good thing. The dollar will drop. Banks and financials will recover because of the spread profit potentials will increase. No matter how the bulls spin it, the cheap dollar (record cheap) is not what we want. Unless you want more reason to have the “The Amero” as a regionwide currency. Down the line someone will say, “We need to have a North American trade alliance (NA Union), to compete on a worldwide basis”.
CNBC a few weeks back
Anyway, to get back on track. A 1/4% change will probably lead to the least amount of damage. I don’t want to be leaning either way on this one. If we have one more day of rise or even, I will exit half of my mutual funds on monday, and then re-enter by mid to late week.
I am listening to some Keith Urban to get my groove on. He and Brad Paisley amaze me. These guys write, play great guitar, and have great vocals. Very talented chaps. I heard this song last night, and spent about 45 minutes to learn it.
Keith Urban – You’ll think of me
Here are some calendar ideas:
FHH: Oct/Nov30p. It is a financial and that may be contributing to its skew.
ACN; starting with 2x Oct/Nov 40p, then hedging with 1x 35p and 1x 45c calendars. Both hedges are cheap and they are OTM. They will both expire for a scratch There is a .35 dividend on this stock, however I don’t think it is significant enough to warrant much concern with assignment risk. Oct Vol is 42.8%, Nov is 36.64%, That gives me a nice edge.
M – 30p calendar looks interesting
MEDX – 15p calendar. For the right price I would like to add to my existing position
ZGEN – 12.5p calendar. Again for the right price I will add to my position. I like the potential of this one.
AEO – still looks like a short, with its double topping wave 4 sell.
SPY – I looks like an it want to go higher, but th 61.8%/ previous highs are offering strong resistance. Let’s see how it reacts at this 1490 level.
Monday trades
It has been a nice morning of trade entries and exits: 57 orders pending
ACLI – Exited last unit. 30p calendar for .12.
USB – 32.5c – 3 more units @ .05. Nothing cheaper.
ACN – 2 units of Oct/Nov 40p for .30. This is slightly ITM with about 1.30 of premium. This is still an inexpensive calendar, but it feels like funny reducing my clip size for these calendars. With the cheapo calendar flips my clips are 20-25 contracts. Then I back them up strong. I am a nervous nelly with anything that costs something… pretty funny.
PPCO – 5 units of 10p calendar for .04. There were 2000 Dec 10p contracts traded with small open interest. Something is up. Perhaps a hedge for 200,000 shares. Either way, it may have caused a vol spike in the dec options. I have been backups with two follow up orders.
Put this documentary program on your DVR
