Well, being April first, which happens to be the first day of the second quarter is proving to be a bit painful for me. Friday was very nice, monday was adequate. Today kinda sucks. -2* outside on my day off, not bad. Portfolio of short leaning trades is getting worked over. Down 2+% midday, with HON offering me the most pain.
And for the second bit of sucky news. TRowePrice, my 401K custodian automatically rebalanced me into 100% stock positions last tuesday (crap!). Then I called them on it via email, and then took me out of those and put me back in 80% cash… just in time for today’s rally. How crummy is that…grrrr.
The best financial news I had all day is that ThinkorSwim credited me a few referral fees (5). Nice. However, I did need to call and remind them.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t around yesterday to exit my FAST and IWM positions while I had a chance for a nice profit. Sad to say, it has cost me at this moment.
The market is certainly shrugging off bad news. i.e.
UBS loses 12 billion last quarter and ends up 14%. huh..
BX raises 11 billion for real estate fund
Housing prices are still out of reach for most people using conventional metrics.
This sort of proves to me that technicals are king. This market is freakin crazy. And anyone who professes to be a fundamental investor is doomed. I was buying into some fundamental guys lately with doom and gloom. And it kinda screwed me today. This was an easy market to see ripping up. And I played the fade game.
An issue that I will now start to use is SSO – the double long S&P. On the down move I liked the SDS – double short S&P.
Trades of the day
HON- hit it’s 200 day MA from the underside on light volume @ 10 am. I am banking on a selloff at the 200 day MA. That is why I added 1 unit of Jun 52.5p for 1.40 on 3 of my accts.
COF – Added 4 units of May/June 50c calendar for 1.03. All of my accts now have this. 2 accts have a Jun 50/40p spread to protect the downside of this calendar. So basically I have added short deltas into this strong rally. Crossing my fingers and hoping my analysis is right on this.
I am getting bullish, but I am caught short. Not a good place to be. However, being at the top of the range, I am not ready to get long quite yet. On April 1 we are up 35pts mid day, on heavy volume, and a very strong A/D line 472/26. The past few down days have been on light volume too. Bullish. If we pop above 1359 on the S&P, it will be an easy move to 1390.
CTXS – bought 1 more unit of May/June 30p for .30
A trade idea:
Gap down this morning on HUGE morning Volume. It dropped to a 38% retracement at the open, and then recovered near its open. Go long???
FXE – I will use this as a proxy for dollar value. As FXE drops, US dollar strengthens. As US dollar strengthens, Gold will probably fall.
When all was said and done, I was pretty well creamed today. Down 2.6% on the accts. SPY up 47, Dow up 400. IWM up 2.51.
I was kind of a deer in the headlights today. I made a few well planned trades. But the strength, even though I saw the AD line strength, was more than I expected. The sellers completely gave up at the end, and almost everything ran against me. However, underlying prices are still withing acceptable breakeven parameters. Tomorrow will be interesting. I am looking to use the SDS and the SSO. There is less slippage than daytrading options.
No to funny in the morning for my P&L