Gameplanning the upcoming week Apr. 20-24

As I prepare for the week, I am reminded of the power of this rally. However, resistance is here.


The ski season just ended today with one of the best 4 day stretches of the year. It Wednesday night and kept falling until Saturday around noon. 20″+ fell on Friday/Saturday and was fantastic. Closing day at Breckenridge was in the 20s and 30s with brilliant sunshine. Absolutely fantastic.
With the closing of ski season, I am eagerly anticipating my next life. The past 3 weeks I have been winding down a number of my personal option positions and gearing up for work with a friend and significant futures trader here in Breckenridge. I will have access to much greater resources to trade the futures and options market. And while the technical strategies are proprietary, I will keep posting my general market overviews.
On friday I exited a number of longs, initiated some shorts into SPY 87.63, and bought some volatility with the friday Vol smackdown that we have been witnessing the past few weeks. My personal accts have -290 deltas, +120 thetas, and +270 vega pts. I have positioned for a selloff with a spike in Volatility.
I have been very critical of the institution of the Federal Reserve, and I remain so. And lest one remains immune to conspiracy theories, remember this… The banks are again “making” record profits, and the taxpayer has been used to backstop their screwups. We, the taxpayer, will be paying for their risk… just as was intended by the creation of the Federal Reserve System. STAGGERING…
Please take the time to watch the video, or read The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve
Last week, Andrew Horowitz, The Disciplined Investor interviewed the author for his podcast. Very good stuff.
Here is a past excerpt/interview of the Author: This is the first video of an eleven part interview.

Evidently, “We are all just another brick in the wall.”

We have been witnessing a very strong rally, many indicators are showing oversold, but certain index charts are looking incredibly bullish for the medium-term, but short term they are quite oversold. Yet we remain in a bear market, and there is no evidence to suggest the bear will end anytime soon. I have missed much of the positive move above 840 on the SPX.
We touched previous highs @ 876, and sold down abruptly from that level on friday. I would not be surprised to see a sell down to the 50 day MA this week (790-800 and 38% retracement), however we still need to break the uptrend line (855) and that has been support on this entire move up. Volume has decrease as this rally has moved up, and when selling does hit I would think we may see major waves of selling as people lock in the profits. I do think there will be dip buyers ahead. The 850, 830, and 810 levels would probably be minor points of support.
SPX 4.19.gif
I believe the SPX is the 3rd strongest index
Nasdaq – NDX/ MNX/ /NQ is the strongest of the indicies, however the 200 day MA resistance (red) is looming @ the 1384 level. Retracements to the 1285 would be welcome entry points. My MNX 130 May/Jun calendar spreads will enjoy any pullbacks. These were initiated @ NDX 1210 levels.
NDX 4.19.gif
NDX is the strongest of the major US indicies.
The SP Midcap 400 (/EMD) is a contract I recently started trading. The doji created on friday is very interesting to me. I am looking for confirmation of reversal on monday. I could see a pullback to 495 or the 50 day MA. The 200 day MA is around 600 (38% retracement of the move over the past year.) I view that as a mid-term long target.
Mid 400 4.19.gif
/EMD – 4th strongest index
Russell 2000 – RUT/ IWM/ /TF
This still has some room to run to the upside as well. My target is 502, but a break of the uptrend line would offer a buy point in the 430 range (38% retracement, and 50 day MA)
RUT 4.19.gif
I view the Russell as the 2nd strongest index
The uptrend is undeniable again. However, the 8400 level and the downtrend line should pose significant resistance. And the uptrend line has been flattening slightly into that level.
INDU 4.19.gif
I believe this to be the weakest of the 5 indexes covered.
Some of my positions which will benefit from selldown include:
SPY – short May 87/89c and 90/92c
MNX – May/Jun 130c calendars
OIH – May/July 80c Calendars
CTXS – May/Jun 25c calendar
ERTS – May/June 17.5p calendar
SYMC – May/June 15c calendar
XLNX – May/June 20c calendar

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