Jan 10 – 11, 2008 – On the hill but still adjusting

Even away from my desk, the trades move on.


What a market. The SPY (S&P 500) bottoming tail still closed below the LT-trendline. I am thinking that we are still bearish. I am not committing much capital either way here.
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HERE is the Shadow Trader Video Weekly for the upcoming week
I made a few entries and exits last Thursday and Friday:
AIG – Bought 4 butterflies for AIG. Feb 55/50/45p for .50. We are still in a down trend
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I still thinking we may test November lows. And if so, Butterfly should increase between 100-150% in value within the next week. The Max Reward to Risk is 9:1 at Feb expiration. Currently I have 4 units of the Feb/jan 55p calendar. I purchased them for .53. The Current midprice is 1.40, and will benefit greatly from a drop in underlying price, and collecting 5 theta points per day/per spread.
DSL- Bounced hard last week. Up 20% off it’s lows. I bought 1 more unit of the Feb 25/17.5p for 1.60 @ 28.35. I currently have 1 unit of the 30/20p. I wanted to add one more spread on a big bounce. I am pleased with this addition. I like the topping tail hammer and the approaching downtrend line.
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FNM – I am out with a .50 loss. Bummer. Big short covering pushed me out @ 36.03, however now the underlying is touching it’s downtrend line. I Should have held my position, and I should have exited half my position when it tapped it’s previous support low. Oops.
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ANR – I went long with 3 positions. This is all I am putting on. I have stops in place, and am risking <.5% of acct on the trade.
JUN 30/40c for 2.80 @ 29.30
Mar 30/35 for 1.60 @ 29.06
Mar 30/35 for 1.50 @ 28.84
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I will be reviewing things at the open. And I have tuesday and wednesday to adjust.

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