Jan 17 – Crushing Market

Carnage, the right call, yet I didn’t take full advantage of my call.


Well, unfortunately I was right. The market broke below triple bottom support. I was right and made a few really good moves. Unfortunately I was working on the hill, and wasn’t able to take full advantage of my call. I did improve my portfolio by about 1%. I guess I will take 1% a day, that has been my average for the past two weeks. Hooray.
I was watch Uncle Ben Bernanke’s testimony. His voice was quivering and when he mentioned one phrase, “Inflation will remain in check as long as the people have faith in the fed’s ability to control the situation”. As soon as he said that, the market began to fall. And it continued to fall. 40pts on the S&P, nearly 300 on the S&P.
Here is a scenario: I am looking for an up move, when that occurs will the secondary trendline hold? If not, I would look for it to move up to the primary trendline. By that time the 50 day MA may be coming into play as it contacts the up trendline. If the SPY price it approaching the backside of the trendline when the 50 MA is driving down, that may be a great selling opportunity.
Another is that once the secondary trendline breaks, previous support will act as resistance @ 1371.
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I would have liked to see a move up. But that was not to be. We had a strong move up in the VIX today. Panic is starting to set in. I have only 1 long position. I was not able to get out of it before Ieft for work. Bummer. It was my main looser on the day. I had some nice action in almost everything else.
CAL – At the open it spiked higher to 26.30. At that point I bought the 25/20/15c butterfly for 1.10. Breakevens are 23.90 and 16.10. There is a 8:1 reward to risk ratio on this Feb butterfly.
AIG – Sold jan/Feb 55p 1 unit for 1.50, 1.90, and 2. I still have 1 unit to sell tomorrow. I also have a Feb 55/50/45p butterfly, originally purchased for .50 and .40, and that is working very well. I will probably own it over the weekend and enjoy theta decay.
USB- scratching my original3 units of 32.5p calendar for .35. I still have 3 units.
ANR – I was crushed on this. I couldn’t get out before I left for work, and it fell through the floor during the day. I just have 2 contracts, but dang I was right on my market call and lost money on this. Dumb.
I’d like to see a few pops in DTV, SCHW, and USB. But other than, I will look for some more opportunity.

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