March 13th – early market check before heading off

I woke up early to look over some stats.


I am leaving for a business trip this week. But before I went to bed last night the ES futures were down 12 pts. When I woke up, they were down nearly 20. Damn. Can you believe that I took off some of my shorts yesterday? Yeah, I guess I can too.
My dreams focused on were will this overnight gap down put us. I ran a fibonacci from the bottom of Tuesday’s low to yesterday’s high. A 61.8% retracement put us @ 129.9. Right now the futures are @ 129.00. Hmmm. Me thinks I wait for 5 minutes after the open, and pick up more of my bullish GS calendar into this overnight gap down. If I were still a futures trader, I would have been a buyer of futures below that fib level.
At this moment I am glad I didn’t pickup more GS calendars yesterday. As today will have better prices. I am looking at Mar/Apr 165c calendars. An amazing amount of front month premium for 8 days.
My acct is slightly Delta positive (239pts) at the close of yesterday. I think we will at least retest the underside of the February Channel one more time. As I mentioned, I dislike 4% pops like Tuesday. but yesterday’s selloff could have been forseen. I didn’t really see today’s premarket move coming so soon after the pop.
I don’t like outright longs or shorts while being away from my computer during convention times, so I will play the volatility by shorting the April contracts and hedging them with lower volatility months.
I went back up, and woke up to more craziness. Down Down Down. So fast, it is somewhat amazing to me.
I picked up some more BSC, but this time it was the Apr/Jul 50p for 2.90. My bid price was 3.05, but it traded right through that. This shows me FEAR is here. The news on Caryle group has put a major hit on the market. With all this crap going on, my acct remains up .3% on the day. Interesting.
POZN – Sold 1 unit of Arp/Jun 12.5c for .47.
COH – Sold 2 Mar 25c for .15. on a basing low.
Overall, I am play pretty small right now. I have no significant directional risk, but it doesn’t mean I am not concerned.

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