May 2nd – Job report –

Jobs were bad, just not THAT bad


We didn’t loose as many jobs as we thought we would loose. So, the pre-market makes a strong morning move. Here are some significant lines of resistance:
Primary downtrend line 142.47 and the 200 day MA is 143.27
The Fed also announced an increase in it’s Term-Loan Action Facility (TAF). Basically, it continues to make to loans to financial institutions to increase liquidity.
Headlines – BBC -“US Jobs data gives positive shock” CNN – “Job Losses Continue”
Reuters – “Jobs Shed for 4th straight month”‘
Those are important. We are approaching a point where I become a dip buyer. But that is difficult for me in the face of an overtapped consumer. What I am really looking for is to find more and more of my summer trades. Trades where direction is irrelevant. And going into today’s strong market, it looks like I will be very wrong about being lower at the end of the week. Fortunately I have been delta positive this week, with some breakout positions to the downside.

There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”
— Larry Hite, commodities trader

Trades:
COF – Exited for .80. Today’s strong rally goofed this one up. Fortunately it was just a 1 lot order.
AIG – This is frustrating. I bought 1 more unit @ .60, then flipped it for .76. This has taken a dramatic turn for the worse, however it is well within it’s breakevens 42 and 51.
IWM – rolled my May to June 71c for 1.09. I tried to eek out a few extra cents yesterday, and I messed up. I just wanted to get this done. I rolled this on a pullback to the up trendline.
XLE – Sold 1/2 of my May/June 82p for 1.57, 1.58. I just wanted out, and I am selling into this relief rally. It is time to free up some mental capital and look for my summer plays.
RRD- Exited 1/2 of my May/Jun 30p for .40. This trade gave a 40% after commission return, and I didn’t have to go through earnings with it.
FFIV- June/July 25p for .33 with Underlying @ 24.53.
The mystery stock spread is opening up slowly. If all goes well I will pick up some more today, and I am banking on it correcting soon.
It was quite a day. After being down 3.5% on the day and 4% on the week, I saw a nice 9% pop in the overall accts today. I am up very nicely on the month as well.
I finish off the day:
Delta +401,
Gamma -1412 (my summer trades and rolling May calendars to June calendars should lower this)
Theta 371 (nice going into the weekend with 14 days left until expiration)
Vega 1281
We will be opening up the week with 46 days until expiration, so I will be looking for June calendars over the weekend. I will also be looking for some long trades to buy on pullbacks.

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