Today was very good. As I tweeted earlier. Mkt closed @ 2, I finished a little clean up work. By 2:45pm I was skating to the lift. New boots, so that felt a little weird. And thx Tigher, Balance is beautiful. The only thing that could make it slightly better is if I could be done trading by 10am and head out with my surfboard to the beach on the North Shore, Oahu. (My Jan 2010 plan). Tig, I too lived near the beach in S. Orange County for a good part of my life, it is a great place
It snowed all day up here so the surface was pretty good. Snow guns going crazy. Fortunately I have a kick ass audio set up. Stereo Bluetooth headset for my ski helmet. And my phone is loaded with some good tunes. I took 4 runs in about 45 minutes and had a good first day on the hill.
Here is a little trading advice from Krull of Hit the Bid: I have more hair than he does, but this is pretty much what I am thinking (except the blowing a speaker in my car).
Anyway, here is part of the trading discovery. I like the Elliot Wave a behavioral trading tool. And combined with a few other indicators (Oscillator and 50/200day MAs) There can be some real benefits.
On Sunday night, I pulled a long charting session. I ran a few scans of US optionable stocks- All EW Wave 4 and 5 buys and sells with a few added parameters. 3 weeks ago I had about 5 total candidates. Sunday I had 177. 4 buys, 173 total sells. From that I widdled down to about 50 real peaches for short set ups. One that I was extra hot on was MBT – sell @ 43, stop @ 49, target @ 9.80 by Jan 16.
However as a good student I went to a Red Option class on Monday and the internet connection sucked. I wasn’t able to get many new trades on. DAMN!
Well to lessen the blow of missing those trades, I have exited 1800 AIG calendars for nice profits yesterday and today. I think Lucas T may have caught a few of those too.
Anyway, the software I use offers some very nice EW projections including target date. They have amazed me in their accuracy. From the 170+ W4 sells, I have about 40 excellent or near excellent setups. From those 40, 10 were targeting lows in late Dec, 26 were early to mid-Jan. These are all independently calculated. What I found to be most interesting was the alignment with the SPY chart below. This EW cycle’s W5 bottom projected @ SPY 60-77 by Jan 12. Hmmm, 1 week before inauguration. Coincidence??? Most likely. But all the same, isn’t it interesting in a technical and behavioral sort of way?
SPY daily- the crack below SPY 91.5 has looking down. Although, to rise to Spy 96-97 would be a tremendous opportunity. Defined stop, and some wonderful shorting opps.
I have and remain biased sideways with Credit spreads in the SPY 99/101 & 96/98
Bullish Fly:
DIA 94/98/102
Bearish trades:
GILD
SYNA
XLE
Calendars in:
A
ANN
C
CMCSA
HRB
KLAC
SAI
VOD
WPI
AIG
XLF
Exits today in:
AIG
DRR (@ the 1.25 level)
Short puts in:
XLF
AUY
MDR
Two random political thoughts:
1) Do you remember how much heat Mr. Obama took for suggesting that in difficult times “…they cling to guns or religion…”? Well after he got elected there was an enormous run on guns, especially assault rifles (fear of new legislation).
2) Regardless of political affiliation one must admit what a refreshing change it is to have a President who has actually read The Federalist Papers.
Finally, here was a video from 11 months ago! I can’t wait for the powder: