I am looking forward to working at a trading firm in Breckenridge from this time forward. I will probably only be working in the ski business for Private Lessons and select weekends as a group lesson instructor.
I have invested 1000’s of hours over the past few years to improve my trading chops, & technical and fundamental analysis. The last time I worked in the futures arena I was a pretty poor treasury and currency trader. However, I have found my groove in the equity options and equity futures. And I am looking forward to the potential ahead.
I have been selling out of my longs for the past week. And as of SPX 830, I have become net short.
As a sidenote, I am SICK TO DEATH of the jerkoffs on CNBC who are proclaiming the next bull market. Those asses have lost more money for the American public than anyone else. Or at least second to the proponents of buy and hold/lazy portfolio strategies.
NOBODY knows what is going to happen yet. There are simply educated ideas. And the BULLS on TV have NO decent reason to proclaim Bull Market.
1) This IS a Bear Market Rally. Major downtrends have not yet broken, the 50 day is still well below the 200 day moving average.
2) Previous highs (SPX 870) have not been tested
3) We just retraced to the early February break (SPX 830). THAT IS IT!
BULL Market…. Bullcrap.
Before we go further… a great ski warrior passed. We will miss you Shane McConkey
As I look to the upcoming week this is what I see:
There is some upside left, but I think we see a pullback here. I became delta negative moving into 830 in the SPX. I see a move back to the 50 day MA (794) as highly probable. However, when has this market “JUST” moved to support… I could see a move down to a 38% retracement of the previous bull move (770). Then a resumption of the uptrend.
Fundamentally I could see another rally push with suspension of Mark to Market accounting.
I would like to have the opportunity to get long between 790 and 770, IF we see a lighter volume pullback. However, I will remain short IF we break 770 on heavier volume with significant negative breath.
As for the NDX, This looks like a stronger index to me. This seems like a natural pullback as we have run from the higher lows (1041) to the highs @ 1288 in one shot. I would like to see a pull back to the 38% retracement/50day MA (1190). I am a buyer on breakouts above 1281, and a buyer at 1190.
Looking to the Russell 2000 via the RUT. Similar to the SPX this is a pretty week chart. The RUT is above the 50 day MA, but now running headfirst into various Fib resistance in different timeframes, and overhead resistance from previous consolidation. There are 4 months worth of trades (Nov-Feb) which are underwater, and I would imagine many people wanting to be made whole.
And the INDU (aka DOW): Pretty weak too.
There seems to be a load of resistance ahead. Previous consolidation November and June 2008 downtrend lines driving down. Also, several Fib levels of resistance in the 8050 area. Support in the 7200 area.
Strongest to weakest:
NDX
RUT/SPX
INDU