Well, the day lived up to it’s billing. Blood red Monday. Nothing was really spared. Frankly, I was surprised by the strength of KO and COF.
SP down 60, Dow down 500. Ouch.
At the end of the day my acct was up a nice 3.8% with the hedged portfolio. However, because we went so far, so fast I am now delta positive in my portfolio. As of the time of this writing I on Monday night the ES futures are down 19pts. It is not a good thing for me if this holds. All of my calendar spreads benefit from Bearish moves, but my IWM Iron condor and Double butterfly positions are not exactly great here. Tomorrow I will roll my SeptQ 68p calendars, and hedge more to the downside on any rallies.
The politics of two weeks ago seems SO far away
We are nearing capitulation low time soon. 1190 was the 50% retracement on the SPY, after hours future trading puts us well below that number. The next big SPY support is in the 1100 area. Good gosh, that seems like a long way away. However, a day and a half of today’s move gets us there.
Much hinges on the results in the premarket of Goldman Sachs. Then we have the Federal Reserve decision in the afternoon. I would have like to have even less capital at risk right now.
I plan to exit a number of positions on a down move tomorrow.
INTU – Sept/Oct 27.5 and 30p. This has been an excellent trade over the past 30 days 150% gainer on a 5% portfolio position.
COF – Sell Sept Butterflies on opening down moves.
IWM – SeptQ 69/67p credit spreads on rallies, and buy back a short Sept Q 76c on down moves.
SeptQ 68p calendars on down moves.
USB – Dec/Jan 25,27.5, 32.5 calendars are down moves.
I am a bit worried about the morning, but on any SP move less than 30 down at the open the trades should be easily manageable. On breaks with volume below 1190, there is NO reason to be long.