Strong techical lift with some chop ahead

I’ve been double crossing myself, but I think I am back on track now.


The past few weeks were tough. I was positioned incorrectly for an easy technical breakdown. The I exited a number of positions near the bottom as I let emotions get the best of me. I exhibited poor trading discipline, and I am down about 14% in the past 4 weeks to prove it. But rest assured, I am back. I have been selling some longs exposure into this rally.
We reversed from the downtrend last friday, and shook out a few loose hands on Monday (mine included). The move from SPX 676 has been very strong starting Tuesday morning. This week has been profitable for my longs, although today was a day I started selling OTM call spreads as to hedge some downside risk. Although the uptrend remains strong on strong A/D lines. I still feel like a schmuck for being short into this move, but I am have now reduced my delta exposure to 350+ deltas.
A few trade exits I made today:
HRB – Mar/Apr 20c and 20p calendar spreads for .45 (this was the third and final roll. Bought for 1.05db, total sales 2.25cr on 40 contracts)
IRM – exited Apr 22.5c for .30. This was originally a Mar/Apr calendar for .20. I covered Mar for .05, and exited the remainder of the position.
SPY – Exited May 72 straddle for 9.79, bought yesterday for 9.57. I sold to quickly, but with the volatility drop I wanted to sell and re-establish a 74 straddle and a lower cost. Bought May 74 straddle for 9.50. I plan to adjust this more actively.
SPY – Sold Apr 78/80c spread for .61 and .63 as a hedge.
SYMC- Sold 8 of 40 Mar/Apr 15c for .42. I originally bought these for .18. I will be selling these into rallies.
Looking ahead:
We remain in Bear Market Rally mode. At some point I plan on selling out of ALL my longs including mutual funds in my accts, including 401K and Insurance accounts. There is NO reason to be a long term investor in this market. Technically, much needs to be resolved. I will be willing to buy back in eventually, but I will just be a trader in this mkt.
This chart is SO easy for me to read, and I just wasn’t looking at it daily. The Candlesticks were simple to pick off. Perfect reversal signals. I had NO reason to loose as much as I did. But there ya go, a lesson!
I am a little upset with myself for not trading the past few weeks patterns better, but I am ready to bank some coin now. This is the SPX daily. We are currently in Bear Market Rally mode! Choo choo, get on board. Don’t’ fade it at least until 773 or more poetically 777 (R2 daily pivot)… it would come from 666 (number of the beast) to 777 (7 is the number of perfection, as God created everything in 6 days and rested on the 7th, and three 7’s is symbolic for the Trinity, God the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit.)
The highlighted area are Candlestick reversal patterns. There looks to be a few areas of resistance ahead. The first is the 750 area with it’s previous support. Although the next formidable level of resistance is SPX 773 (38% retracement, and previous highs).
The next resistance is the 50% retracement is 806, which should also be resisted by the 50day MA (Blue). IF we get there, you can bet I will be OUT of all my longs.
SPY mar.10.gif
As the ski season ends, I will be focusing more on my trading. I am looking forward to give it the focus it deserves.
Get out of my way, I am going to bank some coin!
Here are some Person’s Pivot levels
2009-03-12-TOS_CHARTS.jpg

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