I have not been trading particularly well for the last 4 months, my thoughts of what I think should happen have not lined up with what has happened. The explosion above the 200 day MAs two weeks ago was pretty painful for me. I feel fortunate that I minimized my losses with patience and well timed exits. I have had some hits, some misses, but on the wrong side of direction for the most part. I have not believed this bear market rally and it has cost me. Honestly I still don’t believe in the fundamentals, but there are a few medium term bullish indicators. But as I prepare for triple witching week, I think we will probably see the decent liquidity and range bound volatility.
Looking ahead, this feels inverse to the market action when we were in range 830-880 before we headed lower in January.
Fortunately my PPL and Identity Theft Shield business is doing well. The best thing is that this is the time of the year I start finding my special summer trades. I sit in about 92% cash, and am looking for a few big trades.
I am in agreement with Harry Dent’s thesis for what is coming.
SPX – Upward trend remains intact.
Resistance levels 962 and 1053, Support 930, 890
NDX – Upward trend intact with a recent bullish cross of the 50/200day MA, but Primary trendline is overhead 1551 with 50% retracement.
Resistance 1512, 1551. Support 1450, 1430
I have exited all of my slightly bearish calendars for a small profit.
EMD- Midcap 400. We now have a 50/200day bullish cross in the midcaps.
We have seen significant resistance between 600-603 on the EMD, next level above is 660. Support @ 585, and 561.
RUT – Russell 2000 – Showed relative weakness this week. Substantial resistance @ 538, but it remains in an uptrend. Next substantial resistance target would be 598.
Support 515, andd 491. Chart is preparing for 50/200day MA bullish cross.
Dow 30- Resistance @ 9097 previous range highs, and 9432 38% retrace. Support on backside of 200day MA, and 8300.
CA – Canadian $ – point of action. Support at trendline a uptrend @ .89, next support @ .86 (I will probably be a buyer). 50/200 day bullish cross. If .89 breaks, I will be looking for entry set up in companies like FCX and TCK as we approach .86 in CA. This should also influence energy prices. The tell will be what type of relative weakness or strength Oil and commodities have as the US$ strengthens.
6E – Euro – I find this to be a very interesting chart. Short term inflection point, medium term uptrend. Strength here, would suggest continued US Equity rally. We have been supported @ the uptrendline 1.38, but a break of this would seem like a simple reach down to1.3622-1.35. At the 38% point it would seem like a buy. Prehaps by using FXE. A strengthening dollar will keep me away from commodities, but start putting them on my watchlist
With summer starting to make a showing, it makes me think of summers past…